Statistical Look at Dropped Passes

I had touched on this in a post about a week ago, and thought it was worth expanding on a little bit before the Bear game.

I had been in a discussion with another poster about how many dropped passes the Packers have had this year, and whether or not it was any better or worse than other teams. I decided to take the top 10 passers in attempts and compare them to the number of dropped passes.

I used pass attempts, because I think it is a fair comparison for Favre to be compared with other quarterbacks who are asked to put it into the air as much as he has been expected to. I think when you get to a quarterback that is only attempting 20 passes a game, there's more skewing as those passes are offset by a stronger running game.

The following, then, are the top ten passers in attempts, followed by the number of dropped passes this season.

1. Favre 571 /39
2. Bulger 558 /17
3. Kitna 554 /21
4. Brees 549 /38
5. P. Manning 520 /26
6. E. Manning 496 /27
7. Brady 492 /27
8. Palmer 482 /16
9. Grossman 468 /12
10. Pennington 455 /16

One of the points I tried to make is that not only is Favre leading the league in attempts, but also in dropped passes. It was argued that more attempts would mean more drops, and that Favre would be right around middle of the pack per attempt. However, the percentages didn't bear that out.

Of those ten, here are the ranked percentages of dropped passes per attempt:

1. Favre 6.8%
2. Brees 6.4%
3. Brady 5.5%
4. E. Manning 5.4%
5. P. Manning 5.0%
6. Kitna 3.7%
7. Pennington 3.5%
8. Palmer 3.3%
9. Bulger 3.0%
10. Grossman 2.5%

As of right now, Favre leads the league in dropped passes per attempt, just ahead of Brees and significantly ahead of everyone else.

So, why aren't the Saints struggling as much as the Packers? Easy..they have a running game, particularly one led by a Thunder-And-Lighting duo like Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush.

But how much do those other teams utilize the running game versus the passing game. Using the same teams as the quarterbacks represented above, I thought I'd see what the percentage of run-to-pass ratios would be for each team.

Total passing played determined by total offensive plays minus rushing plays = total passing plays (including sacks and attempted pass plays resulting in fumbles, etc.)

1. Packers 397 rushes - 610 passing
2. New Orleans 455 - 569
3. New England 468 - 526
4. New York Giants 421 - 521
5. Indianapolis Colts 408 - 535
6. Detroit Lions 279 - 612
7. New York Jets 454 - 491
8. Cincinnati Bengals 419 - 521
9. St. Louis Rams 388 - 610
10 Chicago Bears 479 - 509

So, how many times, among these quarterbacks passing so often, are they getting runs called in comparison? As would be expected from the coaches who ask their quarterbacks to throw so often, none have a perfectly even run/pass ratio, but some get more run support than others.

Of, then, the top 10 passers by attempts, here are the percentages of runs-to-pass plays of those teams.

1. Bears 48.5%
2. Jets 48.0%
3. Patriots 47.1%
4. Giants 44.7%
5. Bengals 44.6%
6. Saints 44.4%
7. Colts 43.3%
8. Packers 39.4%
9. Rams 38.5 %
10 Lions 31.3%

Now, interesting stat. Of all these prolific passing teams, the ones that utilize the run at least 40% of the time have winning records. The ones that utilize it less than 40% of the time have losing records.

So, Favre leads the league in attempts, the Packers lead the league in dropped passes AND dropped passes per attempt. They also ranked third to last among prolific passing teams in run/pass ratio.

Incidentally, among those ten teams, the Packers rank next-to-last in yardage per rush (3.9 ypc), and in total rushing yardage (1566).

My point? None to make. I'm a strong believer that statistics are easily cited and can prove nearly any point, depending on how they are presented. I offer them for your consideration and allow you to draw your own conclusions, or to offer your own statistics to support or counter them.

Forget the Playoffs; There's More At Stake

On Sunday night, the Green Bay Packers take on their most storied rival, the Chicago Bears, in a season finale that has suddenly become important to Packer fans.

It has also, apparently, become important to the NFL, who moved the game to the evening as a part of their 'flex' scheduling, interrupting the New Year's Eve celebration plans of nearly every football fan in the Midwest.

Why so important? Well, many will point to the long-standing rivalry between the Bears and Packers. Why have a Thursday night game between the Packers and Vikings? Others will point to Brett Favre and the potential of his last game played. Probably some interest in that, but that’s not what has Packer Mundo all a-buzz.

Yes, after a stretch of three wins, the Green Bay Packers are standing on the verge of making the playoffs. You heard it right, there is a mathematical possibility that the Pack could get the bottom seed in the NFC if things work out right. Folks with unused statistics degrees across the nation are plotting every possible permutation of results to see which ways the Packers can sneak in.

But, pretty much all of them would depend on one thing: the Green Bay Packers (7-8) must beat the 13-2 Chicago Bears.

I say, forget about it. The playoffs aren’t important. Seriously.

If the Packers make it, great. We have another week to watch them. Perhaps some of us will make a pilgrimage to New Orleans or Seattle or wherever the Packers would end up playing.

But it’s not the point of the game this Sunday night. Heavens knows, the Packers will know whether or not the win will get them in or out of the playoffs before the game even starts. There’s a strong likelihood that the Packers will suit up for the game, and have the knowledge that Carolina is already the sixth seed, win or lose.

The dependence on other factors besides controlling your own destiny is a bit distracting. Some 'what has to happen' lists look like a parlay card for the entire week’s schedule. Some permutations depend on Pluto being readmitted as a planet before the end of the game in order for the Packers to make it.

Don’t buy into it. If the Packers make it, they make it. There are more important issues at stake in this game.

The Packers are 7-3 this season against teams with losing records. However, they are 0-5 against teams with winning records, and have been outscored 160-60 in those games, an average score of 32-12.

Giving the Packers their due, they have shown themselves worthy of being considered 'mediocre' this season: they’ve beaten many of the teams that they should have beaten. When you consider that they’ve only played five teams with winning records, they SHOULD have seven wins out of ten against losing teams..

The Packers are running on a sugar high, too. The last three games have produced victories, despite not playing at their top level across the board. The teams, San Francisco, Detroit, and Minnesota, are all dealing with their own problems, and many of them are internal. The Lions and Vikings, in particular, looked as though they just want the season to end.

A win is a win, but the Packers haven’t looked good doing it. A critic might suggest the Packers haven’t won those games, but instead 'lost the least'.

Which is why this game is so critical. Momentum for next season is actually on the upswing, that despite all the problems and growing pains with a new coaching staff and offensive schemes, many Packer fans are starting to believe in the direction provided by Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy.

In the first meeting between the Packers and the Bears this season, in Week 1, the Bears simply manhandled them, crushing them 26-0 in Brett Favre’s first career shutout. It wouldn’t be his last, as the Packers went on to go scoreless against Patriots in Week 11, too.

The Packers have two teams they need to worry about. And no, it’s not the Redskins, or the Giants, or the Vikings, or the Rams. Or Pluto.

They need to worry about the Chicago Bears and the Green Bay Packers. Whether or not they have a fighting chance for a playoff spot at kickoff, the Packers have to prove themselves capable of standing toe-to-toe with a formidable opponent.

Don’t count on the Bears to roll over and play dead for the Packers, either. Last season, Bears coach Lovie Smith rested many of his starters in the final game against the Vikings, as they had clinched the second seed and a first round bye. The result was a season finale loss and a divisional playoff loss to Carolina on their home field. Mike Holmgren might be willing to make that mistake again, but I don’t think Smith will.

There’s a whole week in between for little injuries to be rehabbed. Lovie Smith knows how important momentum is, and we all know how continued early exits from the playoffs can affect the job security of even the most accomplished coaches.

This is the challenge for the young Green Bay Packers, a team that needs to worry about working as a team and executing in all facets of the game. The Bears are another benchmark for the mediocre Packers to test themselves against: a playoff team, like the Saints, Patriots, and Seahawks, all of whom dismantled the Packers in earlier games.

The Packers may need a win to make the playoffs, but they don’t need a win to establish momentum for next season. This team has to show heart in front of a national television audience. They need to execute on both sides of the ball, as well as special teams. Playcalling must improve from the sidelines, and the players have to eliminate the foolish mental mistakes that have plagued them this season.

If the Packers can put up a good fight and make the Bears truly have to beat them in order to win the game, it may go into the record book as an L, but the Packers will have shown they are ready to make a step forward next season. Obviously, to actually win the game would be even better, with the given that the Bears are playing to win, not to not get hurt.

The Packers have something much more important riding on this game other than a playoff spot. They have pride, heart, and a need to prove they are more than just the better basement team in the NFC North.

The Bears are a perfect measuring stick to give that final grade to the Packers. After this game they could be a 'team on the rise', or they could be 'the team that can only beat bad teams'.

Let’s hope this team is focused and knows who the opponent really is on Sunday night. And in order to beat the Bears, they have to first make sure not to beat themselves.

A Fun Christmas Trip

Green Bay - Well, like every other normal, red-blooded testosterone-filled male in America, I waited until today to begin my Christmas shopping. So, a quick trip to Bay Park Square in Ashwaubenon was on the schedule. Not many people, good deals, in and out in about two hours. Just how I like it.

So, as I'm walking along, an announcement comes over the loudspeaker that Chris Havel is in he Centre Court to meet people. So, I meander back to see if he's really there. Behold, there he is, arm still in a sling, wearing a "The Fan" Sweatshirt. Being I've cited him so many times over the years, he should be thrilled to meet me, eh?

Chris: Hi! Would you like to buy my book?

LosAngelis: Um, no. Just wanted to say hey.

Chris: (looks disinterested)

LosAngelis: Keep up the good work, and Merry Christmas.

Chris: Thanks.

So, I guess the fraternity of Favre Acolytes isn't quite as tight as I thought, unless we buy each other's books.

So, later on, I'm standing in line at a store and waiting in one of the lines for the checkouts. I move lines, and see two gentlemen in very dapper black pinstripe suits, and another shorter guy in a tie.

Being this is a store that men usually don't appear in regularly (and I was itchy to get out myself), one of the men excused himself and said he was "getting out of here".

The other was getting a bunch of gift cards. As I looked carefully, at his bald head and resplendent and dapper outfit, it only took one turn of his head for me to figure out who was two spots ahead of me in line.

Yep. Double- D. Donald Driver. Milk Dud himself.

I listened to him for a while, very polite, though he was complaining a bit about the prices in the store (a sentiment that I wholly wanted to shout out in agreement with). He then took his gifts and walked right past me, noticed my white Packer hat, smiled and said "Hey, how you doin'?"

I responded, "Great, Merry Christmas to ya."

That was it. I'm a huge advocate for not bothering celebrities or athletes, especially for autographs, so that wasn't an option.

I'm not sure who the other guy was. He was of similar build and African-American, however, I didn't recognize his face. I think I would have recognized Ferguson, so I'm at a loss for identifying him, or if he was even a Packer.

The snippy little wench behind the counter, looked up with a rather snooty look on her face and said, "What, was that a Packer or something?"

I responded, "Yep."

She said, "Oh well. I am so like, not affected by that."

A minute or two later, she must have looked at the receipt of what he had all bought, and her eyes popped out a bit.

"Affected now, are we?" I asked.

Fun day. I thought that was just going to be some boring shopping, and end up meeting two guys on the "in's" with the Pack. Nice Christmas present.

And no, my cell phone doesn't have a camera on it, sorry.