Thompson Runs Risks In Backfield

As I looked over the cuts made for the 53-man roster today for the Packers, there weren't too many surprises. Oh, yes, seeing Jarrett Bush and Breno Giacomini making the final roster was a bit of a surprise, but then again, somewhat expected: Ted Thompson always values his draft picks a bit too highly, and I have never understood his approach to the defensive secondary.

But the one that really stood out to me as a concern were the cuts of Vernand Morency and Noah Herron. Not that either one was looking like a starter, but simply the fact that both these experienced backs were released. It concerns me because the Packers appear to be going into the season with just three running backs, all of whom still have a lot to prove coming into the first week of the season.

Yes, we expected Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson, both acquisitions from the 2007 draft, to make the final roster, and many speculated that undrafted rookie Kregg Lumpkin would also slip through, as he had been the workhorse of the preseason and showed a bit of promise. However, like most of the prognosticators predicting the final roster, I thought the Pack would keep four running backs in the stable, and go with just one fullback.

Alas, the Packers went with just three, and kept both Korey Hall and John Kuhn at fullback. The rationale that was mentioned today through the media was that the Packers often go with a two-FB set in short yardage situations, thus needing both fullbacks.

I don't know if I buy that, but the loss of both Herron and Morency concerns me, and I'll tell you why.

The Packers are going into this season with a young quarterback and an offensive line that has struggled to open holes. This places a larger burden on the running game to establish itself both on the ground and in blocking.

Ryan Grant, as I have stated before, is our "best bet" going into the season, but is far from a home run. None of our running backs, including Grant, could get anything going the first half of 2007, which is what sent coach Mike McCarthy into essentially "pass-only" mode over that time. Brett Favre played under control and kept his turnovers down. When opposing defenses realized that they had to keep defenders back, playing honest against the high-octane passing game, Grant was able to step in and suddenly bring the running game into being.

It could be Grant was purely a lucky kid who happened to come in and make good in a situation that, perhaps, any running back could have (Brandon Jackson's late-season performance does tend to back that up...BJ couldn't do much at the beginning of the year, but had a 100-yard game once the defenses played the pass first). It could also be that he really is a solid back who is legit.

But, the contract holdout and somewhat predictable hamstring injury (that always seems to dog holdouts) means that Grant didn't play a down in the preseason, and we know nothing more about whether he was lucky vs. good than we did at the end of last season. We also have to cross our fingers that he's going to stay healthy, as hamstring injuries are known to linger and get re-injured.

Which takes me to my next concern, which is Brandon Jackson. He showed promise, and certainly has gotten a lot of press for his Offseason Regimen and Coming In Stronger Than Last Year.

However, what concerns me is not only his lack of production following the Bengal game, but the fact that he was abysmal in pass protection. Not just bad, not just missing a few assignments here and there. Abysmal.

So bad, that when I think about Jackson having to start due to injury, or even coming in as a change-of-pace back (which is normally done on obvious passing downs as a single-back or in the shotgun), I worry about the health of Aaron Rodgers. The assignment of that running back in a single set is often to pick up that outside blitzer, often on the blind side. Jackson may have shown a lot of weight room improvement, and maybe even some improvement running the ball. But he hasn't improved in his pass protection.

Which then brings me to the release of both Morency and Herron. I knew both were not going to make the final roster, but figured that one of them had to make it. Both are workman-like backs who aren't flashy or even starting material, but both bring a level of experience that neither of the other three backs possess, and both bring a skill unmatched by the other two backups:

Both were excellent and assignment-sure in the backfield.

In the last few seasons, the Packers had a quarterback in Brett Favre whose unheralded skill at evading pass rushers often made his blockers look better than they really were. After all, if you can avoid the rush, move the pocket, and prefer to throw risky passes, you likely won't get many sacks.

Favre didn't get many sacks, and the offensive line and other blockers were often heralded by those who worship at the Altar of Statistics. After all, the only legitimate statistic used to measure pass protection is sacks allowed.

But with Aaron Rodgers behind center this year, a priority is going to have to be keeping him healthy. And the best way to do that is to avoid having him take unnecessary hits. That running back is as important as his left tackle on many plays, and I'm not comfortable with Brandon Jackson being the guy back there continuing to learn his assignments with Ben Leber coming on a blitz.

I figured the best option was Noah Herron, a guy who would play special teams and is reputed for simply going out there and doing whatever he is asked to do solidly. Certainly, he is a guy you want on your side in a fight (or if your house is getting robbed). However, both Herron and Morency spent 2007 on the injury list, and that doesn't help your case a whole lot when it comes to taking up a roster spot.

I like Kregg Lumpkin, but I still see him as a developmental project who is going to take some time to grow into the position. He got a lot of action in the preseason, but that was because he played most of the second half of the games, with Ryan Grant not playing in any of them. Lumpkin also follows Brandon Jackson in spending much of his final college season injured, so his professional injury history is far from established.

Part of this domino effect in keeping two fullbacks stems from the loss of Bubba Franks over the offseason. Franks, a holdover from the Mike Sherman regime, fell from grace with his decline in production and injuries. However, the one thing he remained consistent on is his effective blocking, often coming in motion and lining up out of the backfield (as did starting TE Donald Lee). While Lee established himself as a receiving threat and a decent blocker, the loss of Franks leaves a void at the theoretical "H-Back" position.

The other two tight ends kept, Jermichael Finley and Tory Humphrey, are at best young, raw, and untested. Finley, in particular, appears to be a really tall wide receiver, without the bulk and skill needed to take on the tough blocking duties of a tight end. Humphrey is the #2 tight end, but is an injury risk and still not the ideal body to take on NFL defensive ends in blocking situations.

This is one reason I was disappointed with the selection of Finley in this year's draft. With Lee and five high-octane wide receivers on the roster, we should have been looking for a stronger blocking tight end, such as Martellus Bennett, the TE taken by Dallas just three picks after the Packers selected Brian Brohm. Finley's skill set appears to be rather one-dimensional as a receiver.

Without a strong blocking tight end on the roster, and without an experienced workmanlike back to take on pass blocking duties other than Grant, Ted Thompson is rolling the dice on Aaron Rodgers' health. The poor showing this preseason with both the running game and the ability of the offensive line to open holes for those backs means that, like McCarthy did with Favre, Rodgers may be asked to pass 40-45 times a game until the line "gels" (the wait for which is going on four years).

I know that being an NFL GM means taking "risks". But this risk may end up biting the entire offense in the butt. Given what we've seen from our backup quarterbacks (and what we haven't seen from our starting halfback), our season may really be riding on keeping Aaron Rodgers healthy.

Losing players like Franks, Morency, and Herron and their pass blocking abilities in the backfield doesn't seem like the smartest of risks. Replacing them with poor blockers like Jackson and Finley makes it even more glaring.

But, time will tell, and don't doubt for a second that the Minnesota Vikings won't be making an extensive blitz package part of their game plan next Monday night.

Positives and Concerns Taken From the Titans Game

Reflecting on our last preseason game, and looking ahead to a critical opening night matchup against the Vikings, at home, in front of a national audience, here are some positives and negatives that I gleaned from last night.

Positives

* The first play of the game was a flashy 63 yard touchdown strike in which Greg Jennings looked much the playmaker he was last season. I may be critical of Ted Thompson and his drafts, but hands down, Greg Jennings was his Best. Pick. Ever.

I noticed his potential his rookie season when I went to Family Night, and saw him reach, twist, jump, and snag a touchdown pass in the front corner of the end zone right in front of me. I thought to myself, this is the kind of receiver we’ve needed for a long time. I’m glad to see that he is reaching that potential. I think he’s a top 5 WR in the league this year if the quarterback position can be stabilized.

* The pass from Aaron Rodgers was probably as much a testament to the Packers striking ability as it was to very shoddy coverage by the Titans, including a rather stupid attempt by the safety to pick off the pass (what did he think? Favre was still quarterback?). But make no mistake: Aaron Rodgers, when given time in the pocket, has a pretty spiral and great accuracy, and he put that pass on the money. The DB’s were taking chances, and he made them pay for it.

As Rich Gannon noted a week or two ago, he also is developing great placement of the ball. On the play Gannon mentioned it, the receiver was on a slant heading straight for a safety waiting to put a lick on him. Rodgers threw the ball behind the receiver, to slow him down and redirect his momentum instead of throwing it in stride and leading him into a dangerous impact. The pass to Jennings last night was also right on the money and in the place where neither DB could reach it.

* The pass rush was unbelievably effective against the first-string Tennessee offense, putting Vince Young in a lot of pressure situations. They only managed one sack (and that was of backup Kerry Collins), but as I’ve said a million times, I would trade all my sacks for consistent hurries and knockdowns on the quarterback.

It’s possible that the constant shuffling and reshuffling of fresh bodies along the defensive line playing against a Titan offensive line that wasn’t substituting at all might have aided the pass rush, but give them credit where credit is due. All they have to do now is contain the mobile quarterback, as Young did gash them for 57 yards on scrambles.

* Matt Flynn is proving wrong my initial assessment that he was a token extra quarterback picked up to run the scout team from the practice squad. This is not to say that he’s won my undying support, but I would say he’s earned the #2 spot over a much more highly regarded fellow rookie in Brian Brohm.

If anything, I can see Flynn developing into a Ty Detmer type. Probably not good enough to take the reins of a team for a 16-game season, but an awfully valuable guy to have on the sideline and in a pinch once in a while. He has a far better pressure awareness than a rookie should have, and his evasion skills are intriguing. Hate to say it, but if our offensive line doesn’t improve, we’re going to need those skills in a hurry.

* The backup linebackers showed exactly what Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy have been wishing all the squads would be doing: having spirited competition and making things happen to earn their spot. Abdul Hodge, Desmond Bishop, Tracy White, and Spencer Havner are likely competing for two spots, and it is going to be hard to make a decision on them. They were throwing their bodies all over the field, wrapping up, and making play after play that kept the Titans in check.

Don’t be surprised if Brandon Chillar’s name comes up on Saturday. He might be a free agent signing, but we know Thompson loves his draft picks.

* Tramon Williams is making feel a lot better about our aging cornerbacks. His play has really come on and appears comfortable in the Packers' man coverage. I still don't think Al Harris has too many more productive seasons left in him, but it looks like Williams may be ready to be the heir apparent when Harris hits the wall.

* Jon Ryan is looking like an all-pro punter. Yesterday’s game really cemented his kicking ability (a 52.2 average), but also showcased his ability to improvise. A bad snap resulted in Ryan taking the ball and running it, gaining a first down after a 34 yard gain (incidentally, establishing himself as the leading rusher for the Packers in the process). The speed and power he had going downfield, directing blockers and evading tackles, makes me think that special teams coach Mike Stock should run a fake punt a couple times early in the season. Making opposing defenses have to guard against a fake makes them play conservatively, and can only be a positive for the Packers.

* And, adding to that, our special teams overall have been fantastic. Our kickoff returners (Pat Lee and Jordy Nelson) were solid, and adding Wil Blackmon to that group means we have a plethora of good returners. Mason Crosby has been solid on his kickoffs and his field goals. We’re still looking for a good punt return, and Brett Swain doesn’t appear to be the guy.

Concerns

* First and foremost, the depth at quarterback is a major problem. While Flynn has come along, he’s still not ready to start. Brian Brohm has effectively gotten worse as the preseason has gone along, and all those traits that you need playing behind a spotty offensive line are exactly the ones he doesn’t have. He’s thinking too much, hanging on to the ball too long, taking sacks and seems to be unable to handle pressure.

While you might cry out that he was playing against the #1 Titan defense, that’s exactly what he’d be playing against in the regular season. I’d rather see how he performs under duress than against JV squads.

Brohm is effectively our player acquired in trade from Cleveland for Corey Williams (#56 overall). I’m starting to think that it will be Brohm who will be starting the season as the emergency #3 quarterback, and that makes you wonder if the Packers aren’t regretting trading Williams away.

* The running game continues to be a concern. We didn’t get to see any of Ryan Grant or Brandon Jackson last night, and both of those players have to be considered question marks and in high need of some work. Grant didn’t play a down this preseason due to his holdout and predictable hamstring injury when he returned. Jackson had a nice initial game against the Bengals, but has struggled mightily since. The backups competing for time (Lumpkin, Morency, and Herron) all looked rather pedestrian last night, until the final drives when playing against the Titans #3 defenders.

* Along those same lines, the offensive line, while playing without many of the starters, still had trouble much of the night, allowing six more sacks and a lot of pressure on Brohm and Flynn, who had to move around a lot.

Many of those players who were in there are guys who are legitimately still competing for starting spots. With Josh Sitton injured for a month and Scott Wells seeming to look week-to-week at center, guys like Tony Moll, Junius Coston, and Allen Barbre aren’t just trying to make the roster, they are potentially starting against Minnesota.

This entire preseason has been a disappointment for the offensive line, who haven’t opened holes for the rushers at all, and have been quite hit-and-miss with pass protection. Going into the Minnesota game against a team that is going to be entirely motivated to not just beat us, but beat us to the ground, the line is going to have to solidify in a hurry.

* The defensive line continues to allow itself to be gashed for major yards on the ground. Vince Young scrambled for 57 yards, but as a team, the Titans running backs ground out 103 yards on the ground. While they did not rush for a high average (3.0 per carry), they did remain committed to it (34 attempts, compared to 17 for the Packer running backs).

What it did was keep drives alive, as the Titans held the ball for 36:45 compared to the Packers’ 23:15 (and much of that was in the fourth quarter), and they also held a 59-37 advantage in offensive plays called, and a 403-266 advantage in yardage.

Yes, we played against their #1 offense for the entire first half, and that has to be taken into consideration. Aaron Kampman and Nick Barnett probably would have made a difference in many of those numbers. But, even in the series the defensive starters played, the Titans engineered a 10-play, 76-yard drive that took up four and a half minutes and gave up several big plays, resulting in a field goal.

If you want to see the effects of a defense that allows a tons of rushing yards per game, take a look at the 2005 Packers defense. That’s not a model Mike McCarthy wants to follow.

* Talk about underrated. Rob Davis anchored the long-snapping position for season after season before retiring this past year. I remember looking time after time at the final roster cuts and wondering why we wasted a position on a long-snapper. Well, now I know. J.J. Jansen has been inconsistent all training camp, botched two snaps last night (that luckily, the kickers managed to make good plays out of), and then got injured. The Packers will likely be sweeping the final cuts for someone who can long-snap, and I now stand corrected: it’s an important job. Come back, Rob Davis!

* 1-3. The Packers earned more losses in the four-game preseason than in all of last year’s regular season. Counting playoffs and the preseason, the Packers are now 5-6 in their last 11 games, after finishing last season 4-3. You might think I’m twisting some stats, but no more than the folks who put the last four games of 2006 and added then onto the first games of 2007 to prove their own points.

The Packers have been stunned this off-season with some ugly public relations and both the reigning GM of the Year and the Motorola NFL Coach of the Year (all other COY awards went to Bill Bellichek) have to continue to win over fans that have become jaded with the Favre Drama and the continuous, exhausting coverage.

The best way to cure all ills is by winning. Period. You can talk all day about how Aaron Rodgers invites his teammates to his house to play video games, but if he doesn’t execute on the field, it really doesn’t matter. You can talk all day about zone blocking schemes, how much Brandon Jackson has improved over the off-season, and the promise of Josh Sitton, but if we can’t control the ball with the running game, it’s all for naught.

The Vikings are coming in to Lambeau Field with as much excitement as they’ve had in years about their chances this season. They love to embarrass the Packers at home (they are 2-2 at Lambeau in their last four games), and after the tampering charges filed against them by the Packers, are more than motivated to come in and make this a statement game.

The “Wait and See’ period is over, and the Packers need to show that after four years under Thompson’s leadership, that they can win with without Brett Favre.

Front and Center: Interior Lines Cause for Concern

Back in the early 1990’s, there was a catchphrase that seemed to sum up the week-to-week fortunes of the Green Bay Packers. Perhaps you all remember it:

“As Favre goes, so go the Packers…”

Fast-forward around fifteen years, and there is no longer a Brett Favre to pin the fortunes of our team on. But, interestingly enough, it doesn’t seem to be placed on his successor, Aaron Rodgers, either. Rodgers isn’t the kind of quarterback that elevates the level of play around him (as evidenced by the shocking number of dropped passes this offseason) or negates it, either.

After catching up and watching all three preseason games played by the Packers, I’ve developed a new catchphrase that I doubt will catch on, but nevertheless has the ring of truth in it.

“As the interior lines go, so go the Packers…”

The Packers have had a roller coaster preseason thus far, with both offense and defense showing holes, particularly along the line of scrimmage. Injuries have certainly played their part, but so has a lack of development of many of the players drafted by Ted Thompson to shore up those squads.

The interior line is critical to the play on the field, and why I supported Thompson’s rebuilding approach to address the lines first and foremost in his first couple of years. No matter how the game has evolved, the game is still won up front.

The exterior line players are the sexy positions, with high-paid, high-profile athletes. Defensive ends are paid to tear around the line and get quarterback sacks. Offensive tackles are paid to prevent those DE’s from getting them.

But, it is the unsung heroes in the middle of the line, the defensive tackles and offensive guards and centers who really make the team hum. The sack, in my long-standing opinion, is the most overrated statistic in football. I would trade all my defensive sacks for consistent pressure, hurries, and knockdowns on the quarterback. Give me Aaron Kampman's consistency over KGB's once-in-a-while sack any day.

But, most importantly, the establishment of a running game is won or lost in the middle of the line, and right now, the Packers are struggling to not only get their own running game off the ground, but they are struggling to stop the opposing team’s rushers, too.

The hammer comes down on Ted Thompson, who has been building both interior lines almost entirely through the draft, and now is expected to have those investments pay off.

Offensive Line

One of the most overlooked traits Brett Favre brought to an offense was his excellent pressure awareness and evasion. While he certainly couldn’t be considered a “mobile quarterback” (his scrambles often looked painful), he was excellent at making small adjustments to the side or up in the pocket to avoid the rush. Combined with his tendency to get rid of the ball quickly, our offensive line often was praised for its pass protection simply based on the number of sacks allowed (only 19 last year).

Again, the sack is the most overrated statistic in football, and unfortunately, it is the only official statistic available to measure the effectiveness of an offensive line’s pass protection (hurries and such are all unofficial and subjective). So, for the past few years, our line has sometimes gotten credit where it hasn’t been due.

In the game against the 49ers, the problems with the line became more evident, especially with Rodgers and the rookie backups, who don’t have the pressure awareness of their predecessor. Much of the pressure in that game came through the middle, as the guards and centers struggled against the rush.

In the three preseason games, the Packers have allowed ten sacks of their quarterbacks, including six on Rodgers. The Packers allowed just nineteen sacks over the entire sixteen game season in 2007.

Furthermore, starting running back Brandon Jackson, after a nice first game against the Bengals, has rushed for only 29 yards in 11 attempts since, a miserable average that doesn’t bode well for an offense that needs a running game to take the pressure off of young quarterbacks.

Certainly, injuries play a part. Starting center Scott Wells, a holdover from the Mike Sherman era, hasn’t played much at all this preseason. But since Thompson unceremoniously dismissed guards Marco Rivera and Mike Wahle before the 2005 season started, he has invested a high number of draft picks in the interior guard position, and nary a free agent.

In 2005, he drafted Junius Coston and Wil Whittaker in the 5th and 7th round, respectively. Coston has struggled with injuries and made some lackluster starts, but remains on the roster as a reserve. Whittaker was a young player who started much of the 2005 season and was released the subsequent offseason.

In 2006, he drafted three interior linemen to compensate for the debacle of 2005: Daryn Colledge, Jason Spitz, and Tony Moll. Colledge has started and been incredibly inconsistent. He is now being moved along the line to find a spot where he can have success. Spitz has shown perhaps the most promise of the three, but has struggled at times playing center for the injured Wells. Moll has started at times, but like Colledge, hasn’t found his stride entering his third season.

In 2007, Thompson drafted Allen Barbre in the fourth round, and while he has shown promise, he has yet to stay healthy enough to crack the starting lineup. He’s been a sub both at guard and at tackle.

In 2008, spent a fourth rounder on Josh Sitton, who amusingly enough, has started every preseason game at guard this August (a bleak reflection on all the other players just mentioned that were expected to develop by this point). Unfortunately, Sitton was injured in the last game against the Broncos, and if this rookie was the most promising guard we had going, it doesn’t bode well if his injury is going to take him out for an extended period of time. Even if he is able to come back, a rookie guard is still going to need as much development time on the field as possible.

Since Thompson took over as GM, he has signed only street free agents to help out along the line, and none of those players (such as Adrien Klemm and Tony Palmer) are still around.

As the Packers look to solidify a line for less pressure-aware quarterbacks, it is evident that some of these draft picks are going to have to develop into more than just bodies in a lineup. Unfortunately, players like Coston, Colledge, Moll, Whittaker, and Barbre are looking more like busts than hits for Thompson , and that doesn’t bode well for a general manager who builds almost exclusively through the draft.

While I don’t throw any darts at Thompson for letting Wahle and Rivera go, he takes full accountability for being unable to suitably replace them. Struggling to find interior linemen in his fourth season as GM, with $24 million in salary cap space is a glaring black mark.

You can’t say he hasn’t tried to address the position. He has invested a lot of draft picks in the interior line. But, bottom line is what counts, and at this point, those picks haven’t become the solid starters, much less impact players, that they need right now.

Defensive Line

The interior defensive line has probably been addressed more adequately by Thompson over his tenure, but thanks to injuries and other factors, it is just as precarious a squad as the OL.

Like the offensive side of the ball, the Packers have some solid (if unspectacular) bookends for the line: Mark Tauscher and Chad Clifton man the offensive tackle spots, and Aaron Kampman and Cullen Jenkins man the defensive end spots. But, it is the middle of the line that is struggling right now.

While many are praising the flexibility of players such as Jenkins and Michael Montgomery to move inside and play the tackle position, it is far from an ideal situation. They are forced to play inside to accommodate for the lack of talented bodies to shuffle in the interior line, forcing those two to play extra downs out of position instead of focusing on their own.

Thompson did actually make one of his rare free agent splashes back in 2005 along the defensive line, signing Ryan Pickett from the Rams. However, it is Pickett’s injury that seems to be wreaking the most chaos, as his consistent presence is missing and seems to have taken the anchor out of the entire line.

Also looming large is the loss of tackle Corey Williams, who left the Packers this offseason in a sign-and-trade that looked smart at the time, but now makes us wish we might have kept Williams instead of that second round draft pick we received for him. At the time, it was thought that the Packers had a deep defensive line and could easily absorb the loss.

Two players that the Packers were hoping would develop into full-time starters, Johnny Jolly and Colin Cole, have struggled with injuries, personal issues, and their play on the field.

Furthermore, the head-scratching pick of Justin Harrell in the first round of the 2007 draft has been essentially labeled a bust, as the oft-injured player in college as become an oft-injured professional in the NFL. This is huge, because it was assumed that Harrell was going to develop this season, and could start the season on the PUP list.

Why sign or draft another premier defensive lineman when you just invested a first rounder at the position a year ago? Right?

All of this adds up to unknown player names like Muir and Malone manning the middle of the defensive line, when not being substituted for by the defensive ends. Adding to the problems is the injury status of pass-rushing specialist Kabeer Gbaja-Biamilia. The line is far from the deep unit we thought we would have.

And the results are clear. The Packers did not generate a sack against the 49ers or the Bengals. In those two games, they have also allowed 249 yards to the opposing rushing attack. Frank Gore averaged 4.8 yards on the ground, and Selvin Young averaged seven.

What appeared last year at this time as perhaps the strongest unit on the Packers has now become a liability, simply put.

Bottom Line

The Packers were just as lucky as they were good last season, dealing with very few injuries as they went along their way to a 13-3 record. And, what injuries they did have, they were able to adequately deal with.

However, the injury bug has already hit harder this preseason than the entire 2007 regular season, with key injuries on both sides of the ball. Some of that is simply luck. But, it is the ability to adequately deal with those injuries that matters, and that's done by having the right guys ready and able in the wings.

Ted Thompson is entering his fourth year as general manager and is the reigning NFL GM of the Year. He still has $24 million in available salary cap space and really has few players on the roster worth extending. A rash of injuries makes any team look bad, but so can missing in the draft and eschewing free agency when squads are in need of impact players.

The game is won in the trenches, and no matter how many great receivers we have on this team, a lack of a running game and proper pass protection is going to hurt our offense greatly. No matter what a fine group of linebackers and cornerbacks we have, it isn’t going to matter if the defensive line can’t generate pressure on the quarterback or contain the first line of defense against starting running backs.

While all eyes seem to be on Aaron Rodgers this season, they really should be on the interior of both lines, because they will, more than any other variable, dictate the success the Packers will have in 2008.