Sunday, January 18, 2009

Call Me a Panicked Chicken Little: Sign Capers. Now.

Add me to the list of folks who are calling for a quick signing of Dom Capers as Packers' defensive coordinator.
The New York Giants are targeting Dom Capers as their next defensive coordinator, replacing Steve Spagnuolo, who was hired as Rams coach on Saturday, sources told ESPN senior NFL analyst Chris Mortensen Saturday.

Capers was New England's special assistant/secondary coach this season. Capers was given permission and has interviewed for the Packers' defensive coordinator job but is more likely to go with Coughlin. Capers worked with Coughlin in Jacksonville in 1999 and 2000. Link
I hate to be a Chicken Little, but the Packers have had two solid guys already slip through their fingers. I understand the process of interviewing many candidates and given deliberate, thoughtful deliberation to determine the best choice for the job.

But, at this point, the Packers need a solid guy in a DC, and with every interview-and-miss we undertake, the impression is that the Packers are not only a place where good coaches may want to avoid, but that we are working our way further and further down the list of quality candidates.

It may be too late. Maybe Capers now has working with Coughlin in mind, and there's nothing that can be done to change it. But the Packers could have put an offer on the table before Spagnuolo's hiring created the very opening that Capers wants.

The defense received the lion's share of blame for a 6-10 record this past season, and therefore deserves a lion's share of quality upgrades, both among the coaches and talent. I'm getting the feeling that the offers coming from the Packers are pithy and the coaches are using the Packers as negotiating tools, not for a job they really want once they leave the interview.

He who hesitates is lost. We keep talking about creating an aggressive defense in 2009. We could start by aggressively trying to get a quality coordinator.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Tim Lewis vs. Chuck Cecil

As the Packers continue to whittle away the list of veteran defensive coordinator candidates, it is looking more and more like our new DC may end up being someone who may be less and less experienced.

Nothing against Jim Haslett, but I just am not sure he has the fire that McCarthy needs right now. And, face it....he's been "available" for a couple days now, and there's been no offer. I have a feeling that he may not be the guy.

The next name on the list is Sean McDermott, the Philly secondary coach that one may guess McCarthy is waiting for. I have a feeling he may be the odds-on favorite, especially if Haslett takes a pass.

But, there are two other guys out there, both former Packer defensive backs, that are also being mentioned: Titan secondary coach Chuck Cecil and Carolina secondary coach Tim Lewis. Both played for the Packers back in the 80's (not exactly a time in Packer history that bodes well for veteran fans) and both attained a bit of acclaim in their own way.

But, if I had to choose one or the other, I'd take Tim Lewis.

As a fan, I loved Chuck Cecil. He was a guy who invented the term "ESPN Highlight Hit", rearing back from his safety spot to deliver a punishing hit that sent shivers down a running back's spine. Somehow, the same cut would reopen on the bridge of his nose at some point during every game and blood would flow down his face.

He was the embodiment of the Forrest Gregg era, the old school hit man that was out to punish the opponent, and I cheered as loudly as anyone else for him. He came from a time period that included other hit men (and thugs), like Kenny Stills and Charles Martin.

But there was another name from those teams that many of us forget, and one that in retrospect, I feel badly that I directed a ton of derision his way.

Jerry Holmes was a cornerback in the early 90's. And every game, you could count on him getting burned for a long pass or a touchdown. If you can remember back that far, you probably remember getting your first foam brick for Christmas and throwing it at the television when he allowed another big pass.

Eventually, Holmes was let go in 1991, released after the Packers took a certain cornerback in the draft named Terrell Buckley. And Chuck Cecil saw his production take a turn soon thereafter, also. A new coach named Mike Holmgren came in changed things up, and Cecil was gone after the 1993 season.

What happened?

Playing under Gregg and Infante, Cecil was given a wide berth to get his big hits. And many times, Cecil would get a running start to get those hits. The problem came in that on passing plays, particularly following a good play-action, Cecil was out of position to help out on the over-the-top coverage. Since he played on the same side of the field as Jerry Holmes, it was Holmes who often got the finger pointed at him after giving up a big play.

Makes sense. He's the cornerback. He's supposed to cover the WR. I blamed it on him. He left with Infante.

But when Holmgren came in, he brought a new level of accountability to the team that wasn't present in the bounty-hunting days of Gregg and the country club atmosphere of Infante. When Cecil was out of position, he got called out on it.

Eventually, injuries and a lack of production ended his tenure with the Packers. Soon afterwards, the Packers brought along a new strong safety named LeRoy Butler, who also was able to hit hard. However, he took responsibility for his coverages, and ended up playing alongside two solid free safeties, George Teague and then Eugene Robinson.

It was during that time that the Packer defense became among the league's best. There's no doubt that is due in large part to the caliber of players in the front seven, but it also due in part to the smarter play in the secondary.

Tim Lewis, on the other hand, played only four seasons before having his career cut short by injury. Lewis was a highly skilled player, solid in coverage and excellent in playing the ball. He finished with 16 interceptions in those three and a half years playing right cornerback, and at the time, was probably one of the only true playmakers on that defensive squad.

No, Lewis didn't make any big hits or have blood on his nose. He just went out and did his job as a shutdown corner. He still holds the Packer record for longest interception return, a beautiful 99 yard return for a touchdown against the Rams in 1984.

My point? I've made a point for several years now about how much I would like to see the Packers utilize their safeties in a more conventional approach. Right now, since the Bates scheme was implemented, we have safeties that are supposed to be interchangeable, instead of the traditional run-stuffing strong safety and the coverage-minded free safety.

Furthermore, the Packers have had Ted Thompson drafting for the Bates scheme, and we keep getting coverage-impaired players like Nick Collins, Atari Bigby, Mark Roman, and Aaron Rouse who are all solid run stoppers but have consistently cost the team in coverage, and left the cornerbacks out to dry.

If I had to choose between Lewis and Cecil as to who will finally address this issue, I don't think Cecil is going to be the guy who is going to push it, especially as a player who often left Jerry Holmes out to dry to take on the big hit himself.

Now, there's a lot more to a defense than the secondary, and our team needs a lot of help on the other two squads: defensive line and linebackers. However, I've said for years that by bringing in a good "quarterback of the defense" like Eugene Robinson to play free safety, allowing a budding Nick Collins to move to strong safety, you would solve a ton of problems in the passing game and improve the defense right away.

I think Lewis would be far more likely to make that change in the backfield. Furthermore, his tendency towards a softer zone defense might be the proper approach for a roster that is presently lacking in playmakers. While many Packer fans would be excited to see an aggressive 3-4 defense with a lot of blitzing, we only have to look back to Bob Slowik to see the effects of aggressive blitzing when you don't have guys who can blitz, and even worse, you don't have safeties who can cover.

Cecil has those kinds of player in Tennessee. We do not.

Chuck Cecil will always be a great memory in Packers history, a guy we got excited about when watching poor teams. He was our moral victory each week...we may not be able to beat the other team, but we can beat on them, at least.

But to bring that kind of approach to the 2009 Packer defense may be a death knell for McCarthy and Thompson. You can't take any old player off the street, throw them into an aggressive blitzing scheme and make it work. You have to design your schemes around what you have to work with and try and maximize what talents they have.

Tim Lewis certainly has been criticized for being soft, but that was because he began dropping strong blitzing players like LaVar Arrington and Sam Madison back into zone coverage. The Packers don't have any players like that on the roster today, and in fact, need to compensate for the weaknesses we have along the defensive line and linebacking corps.

But we also need to get a true free safety in the secondary, playing alongside hard-hitters like Bigby or Collins. And we need a defensive coordinator who is going to make it happen. A talent overhaul is going to take more than one season, even if we had an aggressive GM.

I would take Lewis over Cecil. In reality, with Haslett, Dom Capers, and Sean McDermott seemingly first on the radar, I doubt it will come to that.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Could Defense Take a Step Back in 2009?

Mike Vandermause is seeing it, too. The Packers' first two choices for defensive coordinator have decided to take different offers, and coach Mike McCarthy is moving on to Plan C - Jim Haslett. If this keeps up, we may soon run out of letters in the alphabet.

Gregg Williams was a guy that intrigued me, maybe in the scuttlebutt that he was a bit of an arrogant arse. That would fly 180 degrees in the face of Bob Sanders, who was as much a gentleman and good guy as can be. Williams may have come in to Green Bay and turned a stagnate, ineffective defense on its ear, not giving a rip who has been signed to what extensions or how much money they're making, and get a squad to give it all up on the field or ride the pine.

Hurt some feelings along the way? Possible. Use Green Bay as a stepping stone to another head coaching job? Sure.

But when Williams went to the Saints today, Mike McCarthy is finding himself in one of two positions, neither of which bodes well for him.

1) McCarthy is finding that qualified, experienced coaches don't want to come to Green Bay, or at least, can find reasons to go elsewhere.

2) McCarthy is putting all his marbles in a very unproven Sean McDermott, who hasn't even interviewed and shown what he might do in a DC position. As we keep waiting for him to become available, the number of other quallified candidates dwindle.

Sean Payton described his intentions towards Williams, which seems a mile away from the hiring approaches we've seen Ted Thompson and McCarthy take:
“A lot has gone into this decision, and we targeted Gregg as the coach we’d like to hire after our first interview because he was so impressive and prepared. As an offensive coach, I have game-planned against his defenses in the past, and I know the problems they create. He’s an aggressive coach, but his units are always sound fundamentally. We have some pieces in place for him to work with, and I know he’s excited to get started.”
Maybe Payton will end up regretting his targeting and aggressive approach for Williams, but we can't deny that the Saints got their first choice, and the Packers are continuing to interview and wait. And wait.

McCarthy has to realize that the bullseye is clearly on his back, and this decision is critical to his coaching career in Green Bay. He has already essentially admitted he screwed up eight hires in 2006, and is now looking to rectify those mistakes less than three years later.

There are two ways to look at it: the Packers are being deliberate, and maybe they decided that Nolan and Williams weren't going to work out. They believe that they will find the right guy eventually, and that time will eventually push the cream to the top for them.

Or, Green Bay isn't the plum position it once was not too long ago, and the best candidates can find reasons to choose another team for the same money, same authority, or even the same talent level to work with.

In the latter is true, the Thompson/McCarthy regime is a sinking ship that needs to make some big decisions quickly if they are going to save themselves.

And, even if the former is true, the thought that the boat is taking on water isn't too hard to fathom.

And, in either case, a defense that regressed drastically in 2008 may end up in even less capable hands than that of Bob Sanders in 2009.