How To Beat The Vikings

It's a pretty stark possibility that the Packers could be outmatched in this game against the Vikings, a team that is undefeated and seems to have an edge at nearly every critical matchup. That stated, this is the NFL and every team can beat any other on any given Monday, so I offer my strategies I would go with if I were the head coach.

1) Tinker with Big Okie and contain Adrian Peterson. The 3-5 formation that we were suprised with last week played to mixed reviews. Yes, Steven Jackson got his 100-yard game and Brandon Chillar admitted he was "playing like a linebacker instead of like a safety" on the two touchdowns given up to the tight end. But, Jackson could have really lit the Packers up like Cedric Benson did, and for the most part, he was contained and held out of the end zone.

If Dom Capers can tighten up the Big Okie and put Chillar in a position to make plays rather than give them up, the Packers can even the playing field. Face it. Peterson is perhaps the greatest back in football and is going to get his 100 yards. And he's probably going to break one long one during this game for a score. But if the Packers can limit those other 19 carries or so to average gains that put the Vikings in third-down situations, the balance shifts to a conservative passing game against a ball-hawking pass defense, one of our few edges in the matchup.

The critical part is hoping our corners can essentially cover the Viking receivers with limited help. The Vikes don't have any Pro Bowl receivers on the roster, and their big-play threat is playing hurt (Percy Harvin). It's a risk, but you have to force the Viking offense to beat you through the air. Fill every gap you can on the line and look for Favre to throw picks.

2) Carefully choose how to put pressure on Favre. Favre is older and his touch isn't what it used to be, but his strength is the one he's had for years...he can still avoid the rush with expert pressure awareness. While many may still criticize his game-winning pass as lucky or credit it more to Greg Lewis, just go watch how Favre moves his pocket around without taking his eyes off his receivers. There was a good rush on that play, and Favre kept it alive.

The weakness of Favre's game is his accuracy, and can be baited into some bad throws. But just throwing bodies at the Vikings decent offensive line haphazardly will just allow Favre to move around and avoid them. The pressure will be most effective when brought straight up the middle and force Favre to the edges, where is accuracy to the sidelines is more scattershot. You do not want to allow Favre to move around and be able to throw the ball directly up the middle of the field, where he can put his body into the throw and has a bit more accuracy.

3) Take chances early. This is always a risk, but it is critical for the Packers to get an early lead in a hostile and emotional environment. Conventional wisdom says punt on 4th and short on the road, but in this case, the Packers cannot afford to allow the Vikings to protect a lead with Adrian Peterson and a short passing game.

If that means pulling out a trick play or a fake punt, so be it. If it means going for it on 4th and 3 at midfield, why not? The risk is giving the Vikings momentum early, but it also will keep them guessing later on in the game. And, if it works, and the Packers can put up a couple touchdowns on their first two drives, it will set a tone for the rest of the game.

Figuratively speaking, the Packers have played "not to lose" with the whole FavreGate effort the past year and a half, trying desperately to avoid having to play this game. Time to play to win. Early.

4) Despite what Rodgers says, go max protect versus five wide. The Vikings will offer the Packers the best defensive challenge they've had this season. St. Louis has the 29th ranked defense, the Bengals have the 16th, and the Bears the 9th. The Vikings chime in at 4th overall and will dramatically challenge the Packers' air and ground attacks.

While the Packers are wise to establish the run, Grant proved last week that he is far more effective when protecting a lead; and in order to get that lead, Aaron Rodgers is going to need to pass. The Packers offensive line has given up 12 sacks this season, leading the NFL, and Rodgers has to establish the pass in order to make the rather inconsistent run game any kind of threat. I am going to assume that without a lead, Ryan Grant is going to be bottled up for minimal impact.

Rodgers asked for more receivers last week, and he got it against the pathetic Rams. The Vikings, however, are not the Rams. The Vikings will put pressure up the middle and we have seen some very disturbing patterns in Rodgers in these first few games when he's gotten hit and rattled early. He's been hanging onto the ball too long and has been off on his throws. He gets frustrated.

Keeping seven or eight blockers in may only send two or three receivers out there, but he has to be able to have time to throw to them. It is imperative to not only keep Rodgers healthy, but to give him success early. Play-action, screens to the fullback, draw plays will keep the defense off-balance and give Rodgers that extra second to wait for his receivers to get open. Rodgers can kill a defense if given time.

5) Involve Jermichael Finley. The kid has been the toast of the town this past preseason, and has yet to establish himself in the regular season. Time to let him have his breakout game on national television. The Vikings, like the Packers, are weakest at safety right now, and taking an athletic tight end and running him up the seam will not only give us some great Mark Chmura-esque gains, but force the Vikings to keep some linebackers in coverage instead of in Aaron Rodgers' grill.

6) Remove the emotion, add urgency. It's going to be very easy, especially with all the media attention, for the Packers to make Favre the focal point of this game. Right now, Favre is the furthest thing from the Packers' worst enemy. Each Packer needs to look deeply at their own performances and execution and play like their job is on the line. Naturally, it would help if Mike McCarthy and Ted Thompson would make the players feel like that is actually the case.

Emotions bring you up and down very quickly, and this game can go south in a hurry if the emotion overshadows the focus the players need to beat what appears to be a superior team. Yes, everyone else's focus will be on the quarterback for the other team, but win or lose, he is still going to be more likely to lose the game for the Vikings rather than win it for them.

The Packers need the focus and, somehow, need to actually learn the fundamentals they were supposed to have learned several seasons ago and execute them consistently. The Packers have lived and died by the "Big Play", both last year and this year. Big Plays aren't going to beat the Vikings this week. It is going to be consistent and methodical execution, play after play, that is going to put the W in the win-loss column.

Favre? The more the Packers think about him, the more they've already lost the game. Think about beating the guy in front of you, and the game should take care of itself.

Packers Lacking Emotional Edge? We'll Find Out.

I can guarantee this will not be one of the most popular articles written this week from the Packer Blogosphere. But, I am going to put it out there anyway.

The Packers have the potential to play with the Vikings Monday night. They even have the potential to have the things fall the right way, get a couple of turnovers, and have a comfortable lead in the fourth quarter.

But there is also the potential that this could be a sound whipping by the Vikings. And a lot of it comes down to the mental and emotional approach the Packers take into Minnesota. And, in my opinion, the Packers are playing from behind already.

Oh, sure...bad blood, rivalries, and defending your team's honor will certainly play a part on how the Packers get up for this game, but those same things are working the the Vikings' favor, too. What concerns me is what has been communicated to the team about the whole Favre fiasco from the very start.

And what has been communicated is, "We do not want to play a Viking team with Brett Favre on it." Loud and clear. No, it has never been stated word-for-word or explicitly, but in this case, actions speak louder than politically correct sound bites in press conferences.

* Last season, the Packers refused to honor Favre's request for a release, because they did not want him going to the Vikings.

* After stating that they did not want to relinquish Favre's rights without proper compensation, the chances were pretty high that the Vikings would have been willing to offer far more than the third-round pick they ended up with from the Jets. In other words, the Packers sold low to avoid the Favre/Viking connection.

* The Packers publicly accused the Vikings of tampering, and while the investigation did not result in any charges against Minnesota, it is very likely the charges tempered the Vikings' efforts and offers for Favre's services.

* The Packers included a "poison pill" into the deal with the Jets that would have forced the Jets to surrender three first-round draft picks if they traded Favre to the Vikings, a ridiculous notion when you consider that the player is far from being in his prime.

I commented on this in August: Despite Thompson's best efforts, Favre got what he wanted, and the Packers did not. You may argue whether or not Thompson "had no choice" in the matter, or that "the public reaction" would have been. You can argue that he didn't want to "help a division rival" in any way.

What you can't deny, though, is that Thompson clearly sent the message that he did not want the Packers to play a team, very specifically the Vikings, with Brett Favre on the roster.

So, how does that reverberate through the locker room? There are a lot of denials about the importance of the game, some short and sweet, and some mixed with humor. But, you would think that as the Packers face an all-too-familiar foe, a storyline that has dominated their own locker room for umpteen years, that there has to be a feeling of foreboding. After all, the situation they are facing is the situation the Packers did not want to have happen.

On the other side of the ball, however, the Vikings get to come into this game having their wishes granted. They wanted Favre, at all costs, and the scary thing is that this is a team that actually won the division last year without him. They aren't looking at #4 behind center simply to pull a Lovie Smith and beat the Packers...they have him because they want to take the next step towards a Super Bowl.

The Vikings aren't looking at this game as a sort of personal grudge match. They are looking at it as a stepping stone to greater things.

So, the Packers, replete with their own self-doubts despite last week's win over the pathetic Rams, come into the game with huge question marks on both side of their lines, facing an opponent built to take advantage of exactly those weaknesses. The Vikings run game may indeed slash our already porous defensive front, which is now further weakened by injury. The Vikings front seven will be pounding against an offensive line that is, once again, shuffling players around and has allowed a league-high twelve sacks.

The potential is there for this to be a great, close game. The potential is also there for this game to be a blowout, sending the Packers into their bye week in chaos and disarray.

It reminds me a little bit of the 1995 San Francisco playoff game, a game in which the ascending Packers took on a team that had repeatedly had their number in the past. But, the Packers didn't view the game as the end-all, be-all. It was their stepping stone on the way to establishing themselves as an NFL elite. The 49ers came in having lost their season finale to the Falcons and were again looking at their former offensive coordinator on the other side of the field.

The Packers had everything going for them, to prove themselves. The 49ers mentally got down early and never got it back.

Now, if I haven't ticked you off enough, this should do it. The Packers may actually be better off getting beat, and beat good by the Minnesota Vikings on Monday night. That's right. I said it. Put that up on the bulletin board.

The Packers have played generally uninspired ball, both this season and last season. In their last nine games, the Packers are 3-6, with two of the wins coming against teams that could officially be on the list of the worst teams of all time. The only other win is due to last second heroics by Aaron Rodgers on a broken play that smacks of Favre's "lucky throw" last week.

The sense of urgency is not there. We continue to get the excuses of "pad level" and "not executing the fundamentals", and seeing the same mistakes against mediocre teams.

I would love to see the Packers rise to the challenge and defeat the Vikings soundly on Monday. I just don't think they have the mental or emotional advantage going in, because this is the game they didn't want to play. But a sound defeat may cause the Packers to lose the battle, but win the war in the long run. The Packers need to go into this bye week and change some of those mistakes that have been plaguing them for so long.

Come on. Your offensive line is still having trouble executing the fundamentals? After how many games? It's time to light a fire under this team, this coach, and this general manager to start playing the way we did in 2007.

If the Packers don't have that fire under them coming into the game, they will have every reason to light it coming out. The Packers have been playing "not to lose" with the Favre situation, and now have to face their fears. November 1st may become the most important game on the Packer schedule this year, because there is little out there that will inspire you more than redemption.

Monday Night Good For Everyone...For Now

We all knew ESPN would be ratcheting this game up to the point of ridiculousness. The local media folks are getting into it, too. The Fan belittled ESPN for calling this upcoming Vikings game "Favre vs The Packers", then proceeded to call it that themselves for the remaining time in the show.

Everybody has an opinion, and apparently, expert insight into Favre's psyche, analyzing how he felt, how he will feel, why he is here, and how he will do. Oh, and he might get some help from Adrian Peterson, too. But, that is secondary. Right?

Just talking with fellow fans on the Cheesehead Nation Blogcast, it's pretty evident that all of Packer Mundo is seething with vitriol towards the Vikings, their coach, and their quarterback. Displaced fans will no longer have to try and get torrented feeds over the internet on Monday night in order to see their Packers play live. It will be nationally televised, and the world appears ready for it...or at least preparing.

As I walked out of Wal-Mart last night, I saw no less than four people loading a large flat-screen television into their vehicles. Timing is everything, isn't it?

Like it or not, kids...this game, with Brett Favre swirling in the middle of it all, is good for football. It's good for the Vikings. It's good for the media. It's good for ratings and makes a great story for ESPN.

But, it's good for us, too. Fans who normally watch the game in the privacy of their own home are finding fellow Packer fans to invite over, or to head over to someone's party or to a local bar to watch the game. Favre may have been polarizing for the last ten years or so, but no longer, at least for Packer fans. Love him or hate him, we all want to watch. Together.

You think the Packers organization isn't excited about playing in what may very likely be the highest-rated game of the season besides the Super Bowl (and the highest rated NFL game in which 50% of the audience isn't just tuned in to watch the commercials)? The Packers bottom line and national image took a hit last year between the Favre drama, the recession, and a 6-10 record. With a stumble out of the gate in 2009, the Packers could quickly fall out of the national media's radar as just another middling team that might be in the playoff hunt.

Not now. Now, the Packers are going to be the center of the storm. Young players will get national exposure, like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings. Giving them the chance to garner respect on future Pro Bowl ballots by showing up on the biggest stage thus far in their careers.

You want to hate the Vikings? Great! You will never forget Brent? Super! You want this win more than any win you've wanted in recent history?

Exactly.

But....

Listening to one of the Minnesota beat writers made me realize something. I know he was blowing some homer smoke, but he had a point: if the Vikings lose this game, some pressure will fall on Favre and Childress, but in his opinion, the team is on such a high right now and looking at winning the division and going deep in the playoffs, it won't be that dramatic for the locker room.

On the other hand, a Packers loss might be debilitating for our locker room. The media, naturally, wouldn't let it relent talking about Favre's Revenge. And, like it or not, there's been more than enough criticism of Ted Thompson's roster moves and Mike McCarthy's accountability lately that it might blow that schism wide open over a long bye week.

Oh, sure, Brad Childress would get some backlash, too, but he's used to that. His head's been on the chopping block for a couple seasons now. That isn't true of TT and MM, though, and through the first three games, I've seen more public criticism of the Packer leadership than I've seen since a guy by the name of Sherman.

I may be wrong, but I think the Packers have more to gain by winning this game, and they have more to lose in allowing the Minnesota Favres to take the W. The Vikings aren't just looking at making the playoffs, they are assuming it. The Packers are still struggling to find their identity, fluctuating between the disappointments of 2008 and the zealous optimism we had this preseason.

All the more reason to get behind the Packers this Monday Night and scream your head off. It's not just another game. Not for the Vikings, not for Favre, not for the media, and not for us.

And certainly, no matter what they might say, not for the Green Bay Packers.