Saturday Night Random Musings

Some random thoughts on the Packers from the cottage up Nort'.

* While I predicted a Packer loss this week on Cheesehead Radio, if it happens, I don't think it should send Packer fans into the emotional tailspin that we saw after the Bears, Redskins, and Dolphins. Like them or not (and I put myself in the "not" category), Rex Ryan and the Jets are among the elite of the AFC. The scary thing is that the Packers are probably still among the "elite" of the NFC.

The thing is, there's a huge difference between being one of the better teams right now in the AFC and one of the better teams in the NFC. No teams has really come out and taken the reins in the NFC, with even the Buccaneers making the claim they are the class of the conference (snark).

You may not like Rex Ryan and his approach, but he has this team believing that they can and should win it all this year. The Packers are beat up in the places that the Jets will hurt us most: along the defensive line, our offensive line, and their healthy secondary will force Aaron Rodgers to play a perfect game or suffer consequences.

Yes, the Packers may lose this game, but they have two important NFC games to follow (sandwiching a bye week), the desperate Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau, and a Viking team at home looking for revenge for their perceived stolen loss last week.

Losses in those games not only hurt the Packers more in the standings, but they are both teams they should beat. It is a major victory for the Packers to keep themselves in the game on Sunday and to be in a position to win it at the end. Playing well against one of the elite teams in the league and losing is nothing to be embarassed of, especially in the face of the number of injuries the Packers have endured (and again, facing an AFC coming off of a bye).

* Speaking of a weak NFC, the Packers have several players on the Pro Bowl ballot this year. Now, the Pro Bowl itself is a bit of a sham, what with fans stuffing ballot boxes and, for the most part, having players and coaches voting based on little more information that what fans have, or worse, only voting for players they have faced personally. Sad as it may seem, you have a little more respect for teams assembled by NFL writers who try and bring a bit of objectivity to their selections.

But, the Packers on the ballot have a shot, if nothing else, building off their reputations from last season in the face of the ups-and-downs they and nearly every other NFC team this year. The negative part will come from perhaps the most deserving of Packers who are bursting onto the scene this year but will got lost against the usual large-market favoritism and lack of name recognition.

Guys who fit into that first category would be Aaron Rodgers, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins. All three have been there before, and all three have had seasons best described as "below expectations". Rodgers has had difficulties with his decision making and is on pace for 20+ interceptions on the year. His 89.0 quarterback efficiency rating ranks 4th in the NFC right now, but he's sandwiched among the top five with large-market quarterbacks that will likely steal the vote, all things being equal (Brees, Romo, Manning, and Ryan).

Woodson isn't even the best cornerback on the team anymore, but his Defensive Player of the Year honors last year will still garner more votes than he might have gotten otherwise. His play has been marred with giving up some big plays and being frought with penalties. He hasn't been bad, but having only one interception and competing against D'Angelo Hall, Asaunte Samuel, and Earl Thomas will be a hard road to a Pro Bowl unless Woodson starts playing at his DPOY level again soon.

Nick Collins is another that has name recognition, but has only one interception on the year, and while he hasn't hurt the team, he hasn't been particularly spectacular, either...certainly, not the guy who was pick-sixing three times in 2008.

On the other hand, we have a couple of players who are playing at a Pro Bowl level, but aren't going to have earned the props a small-market team like Green Bay needs for national attention. BJ Raji is on the ballot, and he has developed into a dominant nose tackle in his second season after not playing much of last year. In particular, he's been the only constant on the defensive line as injuries have decimated everyone playing around him. But, nose tackles are hard to get that "money stat", like interceptions with defensive backs or sacks with DE's and LB's. And, the more that teams copy what Minnesota and Miami have done, running the ball effectively against the beat-up front seven of the Packers, the less consideration Raji will get.

Cullen Jenkins has also put together a nice start to his season before injury hit, complimenting Clay Matthews with four sacks and applying pressure on the quarterback. Like Raji, however, the longer he is out of action, the more he doesn't pile up the sack "money sack", and the more teams rush the ball effectively, the less likely he is to get attention.

Tramon Williams also has to fall into this category. Among Packer fans, there's no doubt that he should be a shoo-in for a Pro Bowl ballot, and after other than Matthews, he's probably the second name clicked. But in the national spotlight, he's been a quiet story despite being the closest thing to a shutdown corner the Packers have. And, when Charles Woodson is on the ballot with you, it's going to be that much harder to have national fans and players from other teams vote for Tramon when they've already clicked on last year's DPOY. Not fair, to be sure, and I don't know if anyone on the team is more deserving of a spot this year.

Perhaps one of the biggest disappointments will be offensive guard Josh Sitton. You might remember the beginning of the 2009 season, when Daryn Colledge was being touted as having graded out as the best D-lineman of 2008. The tables turned very quickly, and Sitton went from being just another "competition body" to the most solid and consistent lineman the Packers have. If, like me, you've rewound the DVR and kept an eye on ol' #71, you've seen that he's been opening holes up the middle for Brandon Jackson, as well as not being the one letting defensive players in the backfield to meet Rodgers up-close-and-personal. Sitton's fortunes, however, ride of the success of the offense as a whole. Rodgers has to get the passing game going and keep avoiding sacks, and it will help if the Packers work on making the ground game a more consistent part of their attack. The better the offense does, the better the chance a national unknown like Sitton may get some consideration.

Desmond Bishop being on the ballot is a wash. Wile many of us have a ton of hope for him in the future, he shouldn't be garnering attention as a Pro Bowler even from Packer fans. Someday, absolutely. But, voting for Bishop is like the Cowboy fans voting for Jon Kitna. If Nick Barnett has struggled to make a Pro Bowl all these years due to the competition, it should be near impossible for Bishop, unless he strings some incredible games together between now and the end of the voting.

Greg Jennings and Donald Driver, unfortunately, will not garner a ton of attention. Driver has gone nearly invisible two out of the last three games, and neither receiver is on pace for a 1,000-yard season. Now, that may change a bit with Jermichael Finley out of the lineup, but there is a ton of receivers in the NFL that have nearly doubled up statistics on both.

Naturally, the most likely candidate for making the Pro Bowl (at least, on the first ballot) will be outside linebacker Clay Matthews, who has garnered some national attention by leading the league in sacks, but also simply being a disruptive force in the backfield and forcing a ton of pressures on the quarterback. Now, being held without a sack for two games (missing one due to injury), Matthews need to keep up his own pace to make sure he gets the vote at perhaps the most competitive position in Pro Bowl voting...OLB.

Packer Grades, Week 7

OVERALL: B+
The Packers needed to put together four quarters of football in order to win a game that was pivotal for both teams' chances in the NFC North this year.  To their credit, the Packers did just what they needed to do to win this game, including a defensive stand at the end that sealed a critical victory.  Coach Mike McCarthy can rest easier tonight as his team reduced the gaffes and penalties that have plagued them the past few weeks.  McCarthy was also two-for-two on his challenge flags, and both overturned critical plays that were in the Vikings' favor.  It wasn't perfect, but did just enough to go into the fourth quarter with a lead and protected it.
 
RUSHING OFFENSE: B
Still underused with only 13 carries, Brandon Jackson was able to generate consistent positive yardage when he touched the ball, gaining 58 yards and scoring the Packers' first touchdown.  John Kuhn, however, was surprisingly disappointing in his usual short-yardage role, gaining only 12 yards on seven carries.  McCarthy's decision to go for it on 4th-and-1 early in the fourth quarter instead of kicking a field goal went awry and could have cost the Packers the game.  Kuhn was stopped for no gain in Viking territory on the exact plays McCarthy had used on a fourth-and-1 five plays earlier.  Luckily, the Vikings did not capitalize on the good field position.
 
RUSHING DEFENSE: C+
Given the clear intent of the Vikings to pound the ball against a depleted Packers front seven, the Packers allowed Adrian Peterson to  rush for 131 yards on 28 carries, adding a one-yard touchdown.  While that certainly kept the Vikings in the game, the Packers held Peterson just enough in the fourth quarter to force the Vikings to start passing with time ticking away.  Percy Harvin scored on a 17-yard scamper in the first quarter, nearly untouched.  
 
PASSING OFFENSE: B-
Aaron Rodgers did enough to win the game, and certainly won the duel between he and Brett Favre.  His 84.8 passing efficiency rating doesn't show the highs and lows of his game, however.  One moment, he's throwing a perfect 45-yard rainbow into James Jones' hands, and the next he was throwing the ball nowhere near his receivers.  In fact, on at least four occasions, Rodgers and his receivers appeared to be on completely different pages.  While his touchdown passes to Andrew Quarrless and and Greg Jennings were vintage Rodgers, two first-half interceptions inside the Vikings' 30-yard line put the Pack behind at halftime.
 
PASSING DEFENSE: A-
Last year, the Packers didn't manage a single sack or interception against Brett Favre in two games, but they made up for it today.  Jarius Wynn got credit for the Packers' sole sack, but the Packers were able to apply more pressure on Favre, racking up six hits and picking him off three times.  Desmond Bishop, filling in for the injured Nick Barnett, recorded a pivotal interception for a touchdown in the third quarter that may have been the play of the game.  A collision between Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams allowed an easy touchdown to Randy Moss in the third quarter, but when it mattered most on the Vikings' final drive, the secondary didn't let Favre back in the end zone.
 
SPECIAL TEAMS: B-
After allowing Percy Harvin to return a kick for 48 yards in the first quarter (leading to a touchdown for the Vikings), Mason Crosby kicked away from him the rest of the game, kicking some knuckleball squib kicks that had to be picked up by the blockers for minimal gain.  Otherwise, the punt and kickoff coverage teams bcontained the Viking s' returners for the most part.  More importantly, the special teams didn't commit any penalties today.  Tim Masthay averaged 45.0 yards on his two punts and pinned the Vikings inside their own 20-yard line once.  A surprise fake field goal in the second quarter was botched when a 20-yard pass by holder Matt Flynn floated toward the sideline and receiver Andrew Quarless seemed to trip just before he would have had a chance to catch it.

Packers Must Overcome Their Own Weaknesses to Overcome the Vikings

With criticism of head coach Mike McCarthy at an all-time high, it's suddenly really easy to point out the "faults" (or at least, "trends") that are hallmarks of the Packer teams he's coached; faults we easily ignore when the team is on a winning streak:

*  In general, an imbalance in the offensive playcalling, emphasizing the passing game over the running game, running out of the shotgun and passing even while trying to protect a lead late in the game.

*  General focus errors that can be attributed to a lack of discipline in execution or concentration:  special teams errors, penalties, critical decision-making at crucial points in the game

*  Reliance on the big-play to keep the team in the close games.

*  Inability to play four quarters of football until your back is up against the wall.

*  And, especially in recent years, an impatience on offense that results in drives, on average, of about three minutes, whether the Packers score or not.

Now, my goal is not to enumerate all of McCarthy's flaws, as that has been done numerous times already this week by many Packer writers and bloggers.  My goal is to take these flaws and apply them to this upcoming game, and how the Packers will need to overcome them to get a win.

Inability to play four quarters of football until your back is up against the wall.  The Packers are up against it, for sure.  While Mike Vandermause and other optimists reassure us that the season is not lost and the playoffs are still a distinct possibility, those hopes will be dealt a severe blow with a loss this week.  The Packers are 1-3 in their last four games and face a familiar opponent with some familiar faces that have tasted Packer tears before.

The Vikings are also, quite realistically playing for their playoff hopes Sunday night, as they have played even more uninspired ball than the Packers this year.  But, the Vikings are coming off an ugly win over the Cowboys and, with all of the controversy surrounding Brett Favre, may make this game their "Super Bowl or Die".  The Vikings have all the motivation in the world to beat the Packers, and you can guess they will be playing at a higher level than they have been.  The Packers need to match that, because even with all of the injuries, they still are the superior team talent-wise.

In other words, if the Vikings choose to rally around Brett, the Packers must choose to rally around Aaron and give him all the support he needs to come away with his first W against Favre.  In order to do that, they have to

Balance out the playcalling and take the pressure off of Rodgers.  This is easier said than done, both with McCarthy calling the plays and Rodgers having the option to turn runs into passes.  One of the first steps is to get Rodgers out of the shotgun so much, as they have been lining up in that formation over 50% of offensive plays the past few weeks.  It advertises either a pass or a shotgun draw play, and the Packers can not overcome giving up such an advantage to this defense.

When the Packers turned it around last year against the Cowboys, they got Rodgers back under center and had him go into three-step drops with quick hitters that minimized the pressure he could get on him in the backfield.  If you couple that with at least a half-hearted effort to make the Vikings honor the run by running it  at least 40% of the time, you put Jared Allen and Ray Edwards back on their heels instead of veering all-out into the backfield.  Just ask Greg Bedard.

The pressure on Rodgers will also be relieved if the Packers

Show patience on offense.  The Packers have to be satisfied with the nickel-and-dime plays of the West Coast Offense they are supposed to be running, instead of constantly passing and going through four or five reads to find downfield receivers.  The obsession with forcing the ball to James Jones and Jordy Nelson simply because we are trying to get them the ball has to stop, and Jennings and Driver need to start taking the quick-hitter routes, instead of always running long post patterns.  Driver made a living off the quick slant...why abandon it now?

The defense is beat up, and the cavalry coming in offers little in the way of a guarantee of solidifying a stout defensive performance that will contain Adrian Peterson.  Atarri Bigby and Al Harris aren't locks to play, nor locks to return to 2007 form.  Anthony Smith just joined the team and Clay Matthews will be fighting his hamstring the rest of the year, as most hamstring injuries go.  The Packers have to start taking time off the clock by stretching out even unsuccessful drives to six or seven minutes, allowing the defense to rest up and the Viking offense to get out of rhythm.

In order to do that, the Packers must

Play disciplined ball, avoid costly penalties, and execute consistently, particularly on special teams.  When you have gone 1-3 over your last four games, with each game decided by three points or less (and two games in overtime), there's plenty of places to look place blame.  One of those places cannot be special teams.  Special teams are the paragon of simple execution:  no schemes or exotic formations, just repetitious snapping, kicking, blocking, covering, tackling, and staying in your lane-ing.  Simply put, Shawn Slocum can not longer afford to make mistakes and think the offense and defense will cover for him.

For the offense and defense, I am reminded of (another) quote from Albert Einstein:  "Any intelligent fool can make things bigger and more complex... It takes a touch of genius - and a lot of courage -  to move in the opposite direction."  There's a point where McCarthy and Dom Capers may need to take a step back and simplify things for this team.  It's a sad thought when you consider that Capers' exotic defensive schemes and McCarthy's pass-happy weapons were the key to "Super Bowl or Die", but the time may have come to stop giving players so much to think about, and focus simply on winning the battles in front of them.

In essence, the Packers have to play smarter than the Vikings on Sunday night...and keeping it simple may be the smart thing to do.  When the players are assignment-sure, there is a far less chance of a pre-snap penalty.  Stop trying to do everything big-play style, and just execute what you need to do effectively...and the big plays will come of their own accord.  When you play smart and error-free ball, you frustrate the other team into making mistakes.  And, there lies my key to the game:

The Packers will need big plays to win.  I don't like it.  Never have.  Yes, big plays are awesome: the Charles Woodson pick-six or the 70-yard bomb to Greg Jennings.   They're fantastic plays made by fantastic players.  But as we saw so many times over the 2009 season, those plays had to spell the difference between a win or a loss...or at least, the difference in keeping or losing momentum in a game.

What I'm trying to say is that I would be very happy if the Packers were able to grind out wins without having to rely on the big play to keep them (or their heads) in the game, but I don't know if this team is there yet, especially with the rash of injuries.

As I stated earlier, going for the big play leaves the chance for big mistakes, and the Packers can't afford that unless they are behind in the fourth quarter.  A motivated Viking team is going to do exactly what they did to the Packers last year (twice) if the Packers play undisciplined football.  But, if you frustrate Brett Favre or you get the defense to start honoring the run or the short pass, the big plays will come of their own accord.  The good news is that the Packers have players that can make those plays:  Matthews, Woodson, Rodgers, Jennings, Collins, Williams, Driver.  Despite the injuries, this team is still stacked with playmakers, but they just haven't made them lately.

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As I said on Cheesehead Radio this week, the opposite of "If it ain't broke,don't fix it," means that if it IS broke, you are crazy NOT to fix it.  With their backs against the wall in what may as well be the crossroads game of the season, the Packers will have to change their habits in order to win this game and turn their fortunes around. 

It isn't about Brett Favre coming back to town.  The Packers must overcome their own weaknesses in order to overcome the Vikings.