Monday, November 13, 2006

The "WhatToDew" With Rodgers


Well, it was bound to happen. The Packers have gone on a little bit of a run, going 3-1 in their last four games, and suddenly people are murmuring about wild cards and playoffs. Something about beating the Vikings on their home field does that to people.

But something came out this weekend, thanks to the Jay Glazer at FOX, that has rustled the camps a little bit: Mike McCarthy is apparently stumping for Brett Favre to return for another year.

It has yet not been confirmed that Ted Thompson made immediate frantic phone calls to FOX to beg them to “bleep” out those comments within the ten-second censoring window, but I wouldn’t doubt it.

Said McCarthy, “I know what's being said out there and written about it but I'm telling you after watching him first hand that he's part of the solution, not part of the problem. I'd love to have him for one more year.”

Now, while apparently Thompson has no pull with FOX, he does have pull with his head coach. A day after the game, McCarthy backtracked the statements he made to FOX.

“If I opened that door for that type of scenario, I need to close it,” McCarthy said Monday. “As far as the way he’s playing this year, we’re excited about the way he’s playing. I referred to I think he has plenty of gas in his tank, he could play a number, a couple of years if he wants to, but those are postseason topics. I know he doesn’t want the distraction, our football team doesn’t need it and if I opened a door, I need to close it.”

There. Much better.

Now, let’s be realistic. The Packers are definitely improving, a sign of some young talent making some surprisingly good contributions in their first year, and the veterans playing solidly. Give McCarthy himself some credit for his grit in piece-mealing this team into one that is looking like it can challenge the mid-level teams.

And, indeed, after the Viking game, Favre looks like he’s as sure as ever. No, he’s not the prolific passer of the 90’s, nor the high-risk, high-reward passer of the first half of the next decade, but he’s developed into a game manager. His rush awareness has opened the door for his trademark 10-yard bullets, not the 40-yard prayers.

But with Aaron Rodgers, Thompson’s first draft pick still sitting on the bench, waiting for his turn to start, such talk has some people starting to get twitchy. The recent successes of Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers has to be encouraging for those who have been in favor of Rodgers sitting for a year or two…looking at Matt Leinart and Alex Smith makes you pause a moment before you consider the wisdom of throwing a rookie to the dogs.

But Rodgers will be in his third year in 2007, and both he and his supporters are quietly chomping at the bit for him to get his chance in the spotlight. The Packers will need to pay A-Rod an escalator of $2.2 million if he doesn’t start next year, and there is a $3 million option bonus after this season. That’s a lot of coin for a backup quarterback. Now factor in the continued large amount of money that Favre will command with his contract in 2007 (upward of $10 mil), and that’s going to be some cap space tied up at a position where only one guy plays at a time.

And so, the grumbling begins: Favre’s coming back?! Should we trade Favre and start Rodgers? Should we bench Favre and start Rodgers? Should we trade Rodgers and get another first-round quarterback to sit the bench for a year or two, like Brady Quinn?? Can we afford to draft another quarterback when there will be such glaring needs at running back, tight end, and the secondary?

I have two words to say to you.

Re. Lax.

Football fans are, by far, the most bipolar people in the entire world. Very few people picked the Packers to win against the Vikings, and many were mired in depressing predictions after the disappointing loss against the Bills. Now, suddenly, we’re on top of the world again.

Reality: The Viking just lost to the 49ers, and looked horrible against the Packers. This team doesn’t have it together. When your opponent with a lead chooses to pass 14 out of 15 times in the fourth quarter, and you can’t make a play on the ball, you’re a pretty bad team. Like the Cardinals and the Dolphins, we may have just caught the Vikings at their season-low and benefited from it.

Reality: Favre is passing at a rate that will challenge the all-time record for most attempts in a season, surpassing his gaudy total even in 2005. Luckily, he’s playing under control and minimizing mistakes. But, do you honestly think this would be the game plan with Rodgers in there? Would Rodgers be attempting 40+ passes a game? As I predicted, Favre is getting the lion’s share of focus while the team around him gels, leaving Rodgers ready to step into much more solid footing.

Reality: We are playing a puppy schedule, and still don’t have a winning record. If this team does finish around .500 and ends up with the 2nd or 3rd place schedule in 2007, there won’t be as many pushovers as there are in 2006. And this team hasn’t proven it can beat a good team playing on all cylinders yet, despite all its improvement. Next week’s game against the Patriots will likely be an excellent measuring stick for exactly how far we’ve come compared to the better teams in the NFL, though one can argue that we’re playing them at the best possible time, too.

Reality: Favre is having fun. He’s not here to pad his stats (“I might be the only person who really doesn't care about the record. I would rather win.”), he’s here to help a team win and give his all doing it. He might well be content to end on a positive note rather than tempt fate again.

Reality: Thompson probably isn’t going to be all that excited to see his first pick leave the team without getting a shot to prove himself, all to squeeze one more year out of his Hall Of Fame quarterback.

I’ve been of the opinion for quite some time that this will be Brett Favre’s last year as a Green Bay Packer. More than likely, he will retire this year, as his conversation with Ragnar suggests. Less likely is that he’ll come back with another team, possibly coming out of retirement to help out an old friend, like Mike Holmgren, Andy Reid, Jon Gruden, or Mike Sherman continue a playoff hunt when their starting QB gets hurt.

But Favre coming back with the Packers? It’s far too early to start thinking about this right now, and Favre, to his credit, has stated he’s not addressing any retirement questions until after the season. A bit slow on the learning curve, but the right decision to make.

Like judging McCarthy or Thompson, this issue is also a “wait and see”. Favre could get embarrassed against the Patriots next week, and the ESPN flip-flopper's will all be prognosticating about how he’s washed up again (at least, until he has another great game).

Ted Thompson has shown that he will make pragmatic moves in the off-season. They don’t always work out, but how he handles this Favre situation will be direct and final: he’s either playing, or he’s leaving. Rodgers is either leaving, or starting. Given his propensity for favoring his own players, I think I know which way Ted will be leaning. Favre may have to sell himself to stick around Green Bay, and certainly won’t get carte blanche to make a decision.

And I think McCarthy won’t be saying much else this season about how much he wants Favre back next year.

Sunday, November 12, 2006

Game Review: Pass-Happy Playcalling Raises Eyebrows

Green Bay - There were many career passing records that Packer fans looked for Brett Favre to challenge in 2006. Packer and Favre Fans hoped that he’d make some serious threats to the all-time touchdown passes or passing yardage records. Favre Critics were more hoping he’d throw enough interceptions to break that career mark, so the calls for Aaron Rodgers could commence. But of all the records he was in line for, one record that did not seem within reach is suddenly coming more and more into focus.

With all the talk about implementing a zone blocking scheme, getting Ahman Green back, and reining in Brett’s sloppy play from 2005, most of us didn’t think that Favre would again be leading the NFL in pass attempts. Last season, coupled with the Packers’ worst rushing attack* in franchise history, Favre attempted an NFL-high and career-high 607 passes. Directly or indirectly, he also threw 29 interceptions.

However, despite the constant raves about the effectiveness of our zone blocking scheme and the repeated 100 yard games by our running backs, Brett Favre is still being asked to pass over 40 times a game.

Why?

After the Minnesota game, Brett now has 352 passing attempts. This gives him nearly 40 per game, and now has him on pace for 625 attempts for the season. This number would not only break his own career mark, and likely lead the league again this season, but would place him in fourth place overall for most attempts in a season…in NFL history.

Why?

Dan Marino holds the record for most career passing attempts with 8358. Favre now trails with 7963, a difference of only 395. Being that Favre had trailed going into the season by 747, it was assumed that Favre would have no chance of coming close this season, especially if McCarthy was as committed to the run game as he professed he would be.

But, Favre seems to be enjoying success this season (and enjoying himself, to boot), and had yet another game without an interception (that’s four out of the last five games). Clearly, the attempts aren’t as proportional to the interceptions this year as they seemed to be last year. One reason is relatively obvious: even if he is being asked to pass even more often than last season, he’s playing with much more control and acting as a game manager, using his veteran skills to elude the rush and make the kind of plays he’s established his Hall of Fame reputation on: light on the Hail Mary’s and heavy on the 10-yard bullets.

But why is Mike McCarthy relying on the pass so often? Critics of the McCarthy hiring back in February noted that Favre had the second-highest pass attempts of his career under McCarthy’s coaching influence in 1999. However, we were assured that this team would have a commitment to the run game, and that he certainly wouldn’t be asked to pass 600 times again this season.

625, anyone?

There were certainly some points during certain games this season in which the Packers were behind, and it justified the need for going heavily into the passing game. However, against the Vikings, the Packers held a lead for most of the entire game.

The most intriguing stat that I found, however, was the fourth quarter. Leading by at least six points throughout the entire quarter, you would think that the Packers would be utilizing their run game, their apparently successful zone blocking scheme, and perhaps one of the best running backs in Packer history to eat up the clock and take us home with a victory.

Nope, out of fifteen offensive plays in the fourth quarter, Favre attempted fourteen passes. Of those fourteen, six were out of the shotgun formation. There was a point in the game (shortly after Bubba Franks’ reception) that I got that feeling of dread that the defense was going to start playing back and waiting for an interception. I got the feeling that, despite having a comfortable lead and seeing our defense holding Brad Johnson in check throughout the entire second half, we were going to go to the well one too many times and let them back in the game.

Why?

Now, we can all breathe a sigh of relief, because it didn’t bite the offense in the end. The Packers won the game, on the road, against a hated rival, and despite being asked to pass repeatedly when conventional wisdom would suggest against it, Favre finished with great numbers, no interceptions, and a 100+ passing efficiency rating.

But that sigh of relief may be the same kind that we breathed after David Martin and Donald Driver caught passes over the middle for touchdowns from the 1-yard line in past weeks, dangerous and risky plays that were unnecessary and designed to fool the other team instead of beating them straight up. When Favre’s similar pass was intercepted last week in the end zone, suddenly, we all realized how risky the play call was, and debated the scapegoat for days.

The Vikings are a team still experiencing a culture change under a new coach, and are on a three game skid, losing their last two games against teams perceived to be among the league’s lower-quarter. Perhaps we caught them at the right time this season, and we got away with throwing the ball in situations that didn’t call for a pass.

Favre has, admittedly, played well under these circumstances. Some point to his mediocre pass completion numbers, or his lower touchdown totals as evidence that he’s not the quarterback he used to be. However, despite being asked to pass more than any quarterback in the league, his percentage-to-attempt ratio ranked 11th in the league last week, and will likely be higher after official results come out after Week 10.

Meanwhile, Ahman Green got only 55 yards today on 22 carries (a 2.5 ypc), and only one rushing attempt in the fourth quarter. Perhaps our zone blocking scheme isn’t as far along as we had hoped, and playing against a more formidable run defense demonstrated the fact that this line still has a long ways to go (particularly getting Bubba Franks out of the backfield to help with pass protection). Apparently, if the running game isn’t working, you start passing. Exclusively. Even when you’re ahead.

But, if that is the case, then I guess Mike McCarthy is pretty lucky to have a guy like Brett Favre under center to take the heat. No wonder McCarthy said that he is hoping Favre returns for another season next year.

Perhaps the Favre Critics are right. Perhaps McCarthy is in on a subversive effort to help Favre “get his records”. Indeed, he only stands 11 TD passes away from tying Marino, 89 completions from tying Marino, and 14 interceptions away from tying Blanda.

As long as Favre keeps throwing 40+ times a game, both those records are certainly in danger.

* Author’s Note: The term “attack” mentioned in relation to the 2005 Packer rushing game is used merely as a common phrase of reference, and not in any way intended as a genuine reflection of the effectiveness of that squad.

Game Review: Pass-Happy Playcalling Raises Eyebrows

Green Bay - There were many career passing records that Packer fans looked for Brett Favre to challenge in 2006. Packer and Favre Fans hoped that he’d make some serious threats to the all-time touchdown passes or passing yardage records. Favre Critics were more hoping he’d throw enough interceptions to break that career mark, so the calls for Aaron Rodgers could commence. But of all the records he was in line for, one record that did not seem within reach is suddenly coming more and more into focus.

With all the talk about implementing a zone blocking scheme, getting Ahman Green back, and reining in Brett’s sloppy play from 2005, most of us didn’t think that Favre would again be leading the NFL in pass attempts. Last season, coupled with the Packers’ worst rushing attack* in franchise history, Favre attempted an NFL-high and career-high 607 passes. Directly or indirectly, he also threw 29 interceptions.

However, despite the constant raves about the effectiveness of our zone blocking scheme and the repeated 100 yard games by our running backs, Brett Favre is still being asked to pass over 40 times a game.

Why?

After the Minnesota game, Brett now has 352 passing attempts. This gives him nearly 40 per game, and now has him on pace for 625 attempts for the season. This number would not only break his own career mark, and likely lead the league again this season, but would place him in fourth place overall for most attempts in a season…in NFL history.

Why?

Dan Marino holds the record for most career passing attempts with 8358. Favre now trails with 7963, a difference of only 395. Being that Favre had trailed going into the season by 747, it was assumed that Favre would have no chance of coming close this season, especially if McCarthy was as committed to the run game as he professed he would be.

But, Favre seems to be enjoying success this season (and enjoying himself, to boot), and had yet another game without an interception (that’s four out of the last five games). Clearly, the attempts aren’t as proportional to the interceptions this year as they seemed to be last year. One reason is relatively obvious: even if he is being asked to pass even more often than last season, he’s playing with much more control and acting as a game manager, using his veteran skills to elude the rush and make the kind of plays he’s established his Hall of Fame reputation on: light on the Hail Mary’s and heavy on the 10-yard bullets.

But why is Mike McCarthy relying on the pass so often? Critics of the McCarthy hiring back in February noted that Favre had the second-highest pass attempts of his career under McCarthy’s coaching influence in 1999. However, we were assured that this team would have a commitment to the run game, and that he certainly wouldn’t be asked to pass 600 times again this season.

625, anyone?

There were certainly some points during certain games this season in which the Packers were behind, and it justified the need for going heavily into the passing game. However, against the Vikings, the Packers held a lead for most of the entire game.

The most intriguing stat that I found, however, was the fourth quarter. Leading by at least six points throughout the entire quarter, you would think that the Packers would be utilizing their run game, their apparently successful zone blocking scheme, and perhaps one of the best running backs in Packer history to eat up the clock and take us home with a victory.

Nope, out of fifteen offensive plays in the fourth quarter, Favre attempted fourteen passes. Of those fourteen, six were out of the shotgun formation. There was a point in the game (shortly after Bubba Franks’ reception) that I got that feeling of dread that the defense was going to start playing back and waiting for an interception. I got the feeling that, despite having a comfortable lead and seeing our defense holding Brad Johnson in check throughout the entire second half, we were going to go to the well one too many times and let them back in the game.

Why?

Now, we can all breathe a sigh of relief, because it didn’t bite the offense in the end. The Packers won the game, on the road, against a hated rival, and despite being asked to pass repeatedly when conventional wisdom would suggest against it, Favre finished with great numbers, no interceptions, and a 100+ passing efficiency rating.

But that sigh of relief may be the same kind that we breathed after David Martin and Donald Driver caught passes over the middle for touchdowns from the 1-yard line in past weeks, dangerous and risky plays that were unnecessary and designed to fool the other team instead of beating them straight up. When Favre’s similar pass was intercepted last week in the end zone, suddenly, we all realized how risky the play call was, and debated the scapegoat for days.

The Vikings are a team still experiencing a culture change under a new coach, and are on a three game skid, losing their last two games against teams perceived to be among the league’s lower-quarter. Perhaps we caught them at the right time this season, and we got away with throwing the ball in situations that didn’t call for a pass.

Favre has, admittedly, played well under these circumstances. Some point to his mediocre pass completion numbers, or his lower touchdown totals as evidence that he’s not the quarterback he used to be. However, despite being asked to pass more than any quarterback in the league, his percentage-to-attempt ratio ranked 11th in the league last week, and will likely be higher after official results come out after Week 10.

Meanwhile, Ahman Green got only 55 yards today on 22 carries (a 2.5 ypc), and only one rushing attempt in the fourth quarter. Perhaps our zone blocking scheme isn’t as far along as we had hoped, and playing against a more formidable run defense demonstrated the fact that this line still has a long ways to go (particularly getting Bubba Franks out of the backfield to help with pass protection). Apparently, if the running game isn’t working, you start passing. Exclusively. Even when you’re ahead.

But, if that is the case, then I guess Mike McCarthy is pretty lucky to have a guy like Brett Favre under center to take the heat. No wonder McCarthy said that he is hoping Favre returns for another season next year.

Perhaps the Favre Critics are right. Perhaps McCarthy is in on a subversive effort to help Favre “get his records”. Indeed, he only stands 11 TD passes away from tying Marino, 89 completions from tying Marino, and 14 interceptions away from tying Blanda.

As long as Favre keeps throwing 40+ times a game, both those records are certainly in danger.

* Author’s Note: The term “attack” mentioned in relation to the 2005 Packer rushing game is used merely as a common phrase of reference, and not in any way intended as a genuine reflection of the effectiveness of that squad.

Monday, November 6, 2006

Twenty Things I Learned From the Buffalo Game

Green Bay - Well, now that the dust has settled from Sunday's frustrating loss to the Buffalo Bills, I will offer up the twenty most important things I think that I thought about the game:

1) Cancel the airline reservations for Miami. It’s nice to have hope for making the playoffs after a couple of wins, but I think we can safely say that winning against the Cardinals is like beating a Division III college team. We played a team that was much more on our own level today, and got beat.

2) The defense, overall, looked relatively solid against a rather inept offense. We sent their punter up to kick eight times, allowed only 64 passing yards, and making J.P. Losman look like he was ready to cry back there. If only they would force turnovers….

3) Ahman Green not only gained 122 yards rushing today, he did it on only 23 carries. He took the bulk of the carries today: Noah Herron only had five carries, though he did seem to take most of the plays where the running back was designed to catch the ball (7 receptions). However, Green had only 4 rushes for 8 yards in the first quarter, and 5 rushes for 16 yards in the second quarter until he blasted off two consecutive rushes for 20 yards in the two-minute offense as time ran out. The announcers mentioned that at halftime, McCarthy was going to be telling the team they needed to commit to the running game. Who should have been telling McCarthy that, then?

4) Like Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and sacks, apparently quarterback Brett Favre likes his turnovers to come in bunches after long droughts.

5) Favre definitely takes the lion’s share of credibility on his two interceptions, as he’s the one who threw them. And, Favre was quite noble about that in his post-game press conference in taking accountability for them. However, the playcalling has to be accounted for.

On the Fletcher interception, we’ve seen that same play run successfully many times over the past few weeks, and saw it again run successfully again after the interception. London Fletcher sold out and went for the pick, and got it. Despite that play being run again right in front of him, he didn’t sell out for it again. Perhaps, this is because he was told to watch his coverage areas, because selling out meant leaving someone else wide open.

On the Simpson interception, we’ve seen the exact same play run several times, last week successfully to David Martin, and this week to Donald Driver. I’m not sure why you pass on the goal line, especially when you have Ahman Green in the backfield, but once again, Nate Clements sold out on the play, and made it happen with the tip.

This is the NFL, and if you go to the well too often, eventually someone will make you pay.

6) Scottie Wells shouldn’t be thrown under the bus for his poor snaps, and even Favre went out of his way in his post-game to defend him. But, it came down to Favre sitting in the shotgun, in the red zone, on the five yard line, with first down, on the road, after Ahman Green had just gained 20 yards on two carries. Favre explained that Wells preferred an audible count, while he himself would have preferred a silent count. Apparently, with the crowd noise, Wells misinterpreted a sound as the second count, and bonked Favre in the face with a snap that rivaled Favre’s own arm speed.

This is another area that simply has to be communicated ahead of time with the coaches. You have to account for crowd noise and the snap count. Also, you should also strongly consider handing the ball off in the red zone.

7) I thought this was actually one of Favre’s more accurate games. While he made many plays that were in traffic, he actually connected on a lot of them. He’s been under a lot of criticism for throwing too high, behind, ahead, etc., and yet very few passes were off. Even the long throw to Driver was right on, in stride, and the only reason it wasn’t a catch and touchdown was because of a pinpoint-perfect play by the defender.

8) The progress of the offensive line in pass protection isn’t quite keeping up with the progress of the line in the run game. FOX put up some pretty uncomfortable “Under Pressure” numbers, and while the sacks weren’t high, the pressures and hurries were. We also saw Favre make some of his most athletic and savvy evading of pressure we’ve seen this season. It’s too bad we had to see it that often today.

9) Bubba Franks is slowly becoming a liability both as a receiver and as a blocker. If you’re a tight end, what else is there to cash your check on?

10) David Martin is finally playing with some level of consistency and reliability. He’s become a solid receiving threat, and has filled in as a fullback and as an extra blocker for pass protection. Did I mention David Martin is in a contract year? Funny how timing works out like that.

11) Watching the replay of Big Stiffie William Henderson making a veteran choice of a block that springs Green for an 11 yard gain brought a smile to my face. I don’t think we’ll be seeing Henderson wearing #33 next year any more than we’ll see Doug Evans wearing #33 next year, but this class act has left a legacy as proportionally large as Favre’s, and the next fullback will have some big shoes to fill.

12) Our starting wide receivers looked great. Neither had a 100-yard game, and Driver was the intended target on both interceptions, but what you’re seeing is more and more passes hitting hands and getting caught. Greg Jennings, in particular, has an ability to take those passes that are just a little over his head and snag them like a fly caught by a bullfrog’s tongue. If Jennings is this good as a rookie, we may have a future All-Pro if he develops like he should over the years.

13) If Al Harris is pushing for a contract extension, his me-me-me attitude combined with two burns today (one of which cost the team an important seven points) isn’t exactly doing a whole lot to earn him that new deal. Too bad that Patrick Dendy didn’t do more to establish himself today as a viable alternative at corner.

14) Aaron Kampman is a stud. This guy seemed to be constantly in the backfield. Unfortunately, we can’t say the same thing for the defensive end on the other side. What was his name again?

15) If there is anything that I am most encouraged by on defense, or at least surprised by, it is the development of the interior line. Ryan Pickett has been quietly solid (7 tackles today), often taking on the double-team, which is allowing a bunch of no-names to make some big plays, particularly Corey Williams. Wasn’t he written off not too long ago?

16) A.J. Hawk has proven he was worth the #5 pick, but I think he got schooled a bit today. On more than one occasion, I saw him blocked out of the play. He still had four tackles, and he’s going to do nothing more than get better.

17) One of the most telling stats I look at on defense is tackles. Not simply as a number, but what positions are being called on to make the most of them. Last season, despite having a top-ranked pass defense, three of the top seven tacklers on the defense were in the secondary. What does that tell you about your defense?

This season, presently, three of our top six tacklers are in the secondary, but they are being called on less and less. Against the Bills, the top tacklers were Aaron Kampman and Ryan Pickett, followed by Brady Poppinga. When your top tacklers are along your defensive line, you’re doing something right on defense.

18) Turnovers decided who won this game. Not only the turnovers our offense gave away, but the complete lack of turnovers forced by our defense. Our 13 giveaways rank 14th in the NFL, but our 11 takeaways rank 20th. When you consider how terrible our starting field position was today (our own 24, our own 15 in the first half), missed opportunities (like Tyrone Culver’s dropped interception) are critical. It’s easy to amass offensive yards when you are constantly throwing from a longer field.

19) This is a young and inexperienced team. We saw this when, once playing against NFL-talent, that the wind completely left the sails once the final interception happened. Down by only one score with over four minutes left, our defense allowed a backup running back to stroll 27 yards on three straight runs for a touchdown. Our offense, including our quarterback, looked disjointed, off-kilter, as the down-by-two scores drive stalled at the Bills’ 39. Finally, our defense, after calling timeouts to try and get the ball back, allowed Anthony Thomas to run for 6 yards on 3rd and 5.

Why bother calling the time outs? Marquand Manuel, Brady Poppinga, and Tyronne Culver all looked foolish trying to bring down the backup running back. Nick Barnett made a fool of himself on the final kneel-down.

Winners look at setbacks as just that…setbacks. This team has been playing against inferior talent for a couple of weeks, and has been allowed to continue its fragile momentum because the other team couldn’t make a play. This team has to find the intestinal fortitude to overcome mistakes. Otherwise, I don’t care if we get the #6 seed in the playoffs…I can tell you exactly what will happen once we engage a real playoff team.

20) The Packers now sit at 3-5, on pace for a 6-10 season (as I predicted). This was an important game for the Packers, as they now take on two teams in a row that are considerably more talented than they: the Vikings (at the Metrodome) and the Patriots. That will be followed by two more challenging games against the Seahawks and the Jets, before we see another “should-win” game against the 49ers.

It is very possible that this team will lose three games in a row and be 3-7 two weeks from now. We could lose against the Hawks and Jets and be 3-9. It is adversity that brings out the true character of a team, and we will see how a rookie head coach and a team with 31 first- and second-year players will respond to this challenge. Will there be finger-pointing, or will this team hold its head high? Will we see players cashing it in, seeing player after player going on the IR, like last year, or will this team continue to fight all the way to the end?

Friday, November 3, 2006

Injuries to Test Green Bay Packers Depth, Resolve

There's nothing that says a one-armed wallpaper-hanger can't get the job done. However, it goes without saying that his job is just a little bit harder than his two-armed brethren.

So it goes this week for the Green Bay Packers, who head to Buffalo riding the biggest high they’ve had since the 2004 season, on a two-game winning streak and feeling like the engine is finally firing on all cylinders.

After a particularly terrible loss, it is common to hear people saying that 'every cloud has a silver lining'. After last week’s convincing win over the Arizona Cardinals, it could also be said that 'every sunny day still has a shadow'. The win is great, but we might still be paying the price when we look at this week’s injury report.

A high price, indeed, when you consider this team isn’t particularly experienced (an NFL-high 18 rookies on the youngest team in the NFL) that has already seen some of its veteran depth take a hit (the recent losses of Robert Ferguson, Koren Robinson, and Ahmad Carroll). Whether or not these vets are better or worse than the depth presently on the team isn’t the point: it’s that these backups are often getting their first NFL starts this season.

William Hazlitt once said, 'Prosperity is a great teacher, adversity a greater.' While Ted Thompson has come under criticism for some of his moves in building this team (particularly leaving $6 million in cap space unspent), injuries are a part of the game. Unfortunately, nearly any player or coach, when asked what would need to happen for the team to be successful, will always include in the top three responses, 'we need to stay healthy.'

This is the time the Mike McCarthy will show his mettle as a coach. He’s already shown a propensity for what I affectionately call 'spit and wire' adjustments. Last week, after losing Robinson and Ferguson, then also playing without #2 receiver Greg Jennings, he managed a gameplan that allowed the practice squad talents at WR to maximize their contributions. Sieve-like blocking by the young offensive line early in the season was combated by the use of extra blockers and placing Brett Favre in the shotgun 45 times in a game.

If McCarthy has a knack for covering holes, though, this week may be his true test of his abilities

Wide Receiver: Greg Jennings, listed as questionable, participated in Friday’s practice, a critical precursor to whether or not he will play in the game on Sunday. However, the Bills’ defense ranks 18th against the run, 14th against the pass...a far cry better than the defense of the Cardinals showed last week. Ruvell Martin, Chris Francies, and/or Shaun Bodiford may be asked to do more this week, especially if Jennings is unable to go.

Fullback: Not too long ago, longtime Packer favorite William Henderson was benched for practice squad player Brandon Miree. Now, Miree is out with an elbow injury, and Henderson will be asked to do the job without a backup.

Running Back: Vernand Morency, who has proven to be a fantastic change-up with elder statesman Ahman Green, ran for 100 yards last week before injuring his back. His absence moves Noah Herron up to very solid backup carries, as McCarthy has stated he is committed to limiting Green’s carries to no more than 18-20 a game. P.J. Pope has been signed off the Bears’ practice squad, another promising rookie, but if Green has injury problems again, this squad is suddenly looking very limited against a top-18 run defense.

Offensive Line: Chris White was waived this week to make room for Hill, leaving our developing line with few options in the event of injury. After the starting five, only Tony Moll and Junius Coston are expected to be active for the game.

Defensive Line: Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, and Corey Williams make up three-quarters of a interior line that is ranked #9 against the run. And, all three made the injury list, although all reported practicing on Friday. Jenkins and Jolly, each of whom have had their moments this season, were listed as questionable, Williams as probable. Starter Ryan Pickett and backup Colin Cole are the only healthy interior linemen listed this week.

Cornerback: Charles Woodson, who has shown signs of being the big-play corner Ted Thompson hoped he had paid the big bucks for, finally succumbed to the injury we’ve been crossing our fingers wouldn’t happen. After being listed as doubtful on Wednesday, he’s been upgraded to questionable. His knee injury may or may not keep him out, but regardless, it is likely he will be limited. The secondary has been quite suspect as is this season, and with the departure of prima donna Ahmad Carroll, second-year man Patrick Dendy and rookies Tyrone Culver and Jarrett Bush may well be asked to do more than nickel and dime work.

This rash of injuries comes at a sensitive point in the Packers’ season. Rookie head coach McCarthy is just starting to get his team to gel, although he’s gotten much more competent playing an Arizona Cardinal team that, despite the 'official' standing as an NFL team, plays as well as a Division III college team.* This team is young, 31 first- and second-year players on the 53-man roster, and the fledgling confidence that is brewing is needed as we progress into games against more formidable talents, such as the Vikings and the Patriots.

The Bills are, at 2-5, certainly beatable. But, they are coming off a bye week, are much healthier, and, having just lost two of their previous three games to the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears, are likely looking at the 3-4 Packers as a get-well game, too.

Injuries are part of the game, but how well a team handles the adversity is the true measure of its character. Like the 2005 season, injuries can frustrate you and rip a team apart. How many Packers last year landed on the injury list when it was obvious the team was going nowhere?

These are the times in which unknown players become cult heroes, coaches get labeled as 'geniuses', and general managers earn their keep.

Ruvell Martin may establish himself as a solid #3 receiving threat, William Henderson could give fans one more chance to see him set up Ahman’s explosions through the line, and Patrick Dendy may give Thompson a reason to hold off on the extension for Al Harris.

But, most of all, Mike McCarthy may earn a reputation as being a crafty chessmaster, able to move his pawns and knights about the board in a winning series of moves that continues the forward momentum he’s enjoying.

Let’s hope that these injuries only test the Packers’ depth, and not their faith in the direction the team is taking.

*Author’s note: if any Division III coaches or players are offended by comparing your program to the Arizona Cardinals, please accept my apologies.