Twenty Things I Learned From the Buffalo Game

Green Bay - Well, now that the dust has settled from Sunday's frustrating loss to the Buffalo Bills, I will offer up the twenty most important things I think that I thought about the game:

1) Cancel the airline reservations for Miami. It’s nice to have hope for making the playoffs after a couple of wins, but I think we can safely say that winning against the Cardinals is like beating a Division III college team. We played a team that was much more on our own level today, and got beat.

2) The defense, overall, looked relatively solid against a rather inept offense. We sent their punter up to kick eight times, allowed only 64 passing yards, and making J.P. Losman look like he was ready to cry back there. If only they would force turnovers….

3) Ahman Green not only gained 122 yards rushing today, he did it on only 23 carries. He took the bulk of the carries today: Noah Herron only had five carries, though he did seem to take most of the plays where the running back was designed to catch the ball (7 receptions). However, Green had only 4 rushes for 8 yards in the first quarter, and 5 rushes for 16 yards in the second quarter until he blasted off two consecutive rushes for 20 yards in the two-minute offense as time ran out. The announcers mentioned that at halftime, McCarthy was going to be telling the team they needed to commit to the running game. Who should have been telling McCarthy that, then?

4) Like Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila and sacks, apparently quarterback Brett Favre likes his turnovers to come in bunches after long droughts.

5) Favre definitely takes the lion’s share of credibility on his two interceptions, as he’s the one who threw them. And, Favre was quite noble about that in his post-game press conference in taking accountability for them. However, the playcalling has to be accounted for.

On the Fletcher interception, we’ve seen that same play run successfully many times over the past few weeks, and saw it again run successfully again after the interception. London Fletcher sold out and went for the pick, and got it. Despite that play being run again right in front of him, he didn’t sell out for it again. Perhaps, this is because he was told to watch his coverage areas, because selling out meant leaving someone else wide open.

On the Simpson interception, we’ve seen the exact same play run several times, last week successfully to David Martin, and this week to Donald Driver. I’m not sure why you pass on the goal line, especially when you have Ahman Green in the backfield, but once again, Nate Clements sold out on the play, and made it happen with the tip.

This is the NFL, and if you go to the well too often, eventually someone will make you pay.

6) Scottie Wells shouldn’t be thrown under the bus for his poor snaps, and even Favre went out of his way in his post-game to defend him. But, it came down to Favre sitting in the shotgun, in the red zone, on the five yard line, with first down, on the road, after Ahman Green had just gained 20 yards on two carries. Favre explained that Wells preferred an audible count, while he himself would have preferred a silent count. Apparently, with the crowd noise, Wells misinterpreted a sound as the second count, and bonked Favre in the face with a snap that rivaled Favre’s own arm speed.

This is another area that simply has to be communicated ahead of time with the coaches. You have to account for crowd noise and the snap count. Also, you should also strongly consider handing the ball off in the red zone.

7) I thought this was actually one of Favre’s more accurate games. While he made many plays that were in traffic, he actually connected on a lot of them. He’s been under a lot of criticism for throwing too high, behind, ahead, etc., and yet very few passes were off. Even the long throw to Driver was right on, in stride, and the only reason it wasn’t a catch and touchdown was because of a pinpoint-perfect play by the defender.

8) The progress of the offensive line in pass protection isn’t quite keeping up with the progress of the line in the run game. FOX put up some pretty uncomfortable “Under Pressure” numbers, and while the sacks weren’t high, the pressures and hurries were. We also saw Favre make some of his most athletic and savvy evading of pressure we’ve seen this season. It’s too bad we had to see it that often today.

9) Bubba Franks is slowly becoming a liability both as a receiver and as a blocker. If you’re a tight end, what else is there to cash your check on?

10) David Martin is finally playing with some level of consistency and reliability. He’s become a solid receiving threat, and has filled in as a fullback and as an extra blocker for pass protection. Did I mention David Martin is in a contract year? Funny how timing works out like that.

11) Watching the replay of Big Stiffie William Henderson making a veteran choice of a block that springs Green for an 11 yard gain brought a smile to my face. I don’t think we’ll be seeing Henderson wearing #33 next year any more than we’ll see Doug Evans wearing #33 next year, but this class act has left a legacy as proportionally large as Favre’s, and the next fullback will have some big shoes to fill.

12) Our starting wide receivers looked great. Neither had a 100-yard game, and Driver was the intended target on both interceptions, but what you’re seeing is more and more passes hitting hands and getting caught. Greg Jennings, in particular, has an ability to take those passes that are just a little over his head and snag them like a fly caught by a bullfrog’s tongue. If Jennings is this good as a rookie, we may have a future All-Pro if he develops like he should over the years.

13) If Al Harris is pushing for a contract extension, his me-me-me attitude combined with two burns today (one of which cost the team an important seven points) isn’t exactly doing a whole lot to earn him that new deal. Too bad that Patrick Dendy didn’t do more to establish himself today as a viable alternative at corner.

14) Aaron Kampman is a stud. This guy seemed to be constantly in the backfield. Unfortunately, we can’t say the same thing for the defensive end on the other side. What was his name again?

15) If there is anything that I am most encouraged by on defense, or at least surprised by, it is the development of the interior line. Ryan Pickett has been quietly solid (7 tackles today), often taking on the double-team, which is allowing a bunch of no-names to make some big plays, particularly Corey Williams. Wasn’t he written off not too long ago?

16) A.J. Hawk has proven he was worth the #5 pick, but I think he got schooled a bit today. On more than one occasion, I saw him blocked out of the play. He still had four tackles, and he’s going to do nothing more than get better.

17) One of the most telling stats I look at on defense is tackles. Not simply as a number, but what positions are being called on to make the most of them. Last season, despite having a top-ranked pass defense, three of the top seven tacklers on the defense were in the secondary. What does that tell you about your defense?

This season, presently, three of our top six tacklers are in the secondary, but they are being called on less and less. Against the Bills, the top tacklers were Aaron Kampman and Ryan Pickett, followed by Brady Poppinga. When your top tacklers are along your defensive line, you’re doing something right on defense.

18) Turnovers decided who won this game. Not only the turnovers our offense gave away, but the complete lack of turnovers forced by our defense. Our 13 giveaways rank 14th in the NFL, but our 11 takeaways rank 20th. When you consider how terrible our starting field position was today (our own 24, our own 15 in the first half), missed opportunities (like Tyrone Culver’s dropped interception) are critical. It’s easy to amass offensive yards when you are constantly throwing from a longer field.

19) This is a young and inexperienced team. We saw this when, once playing against NFL-talent, that the wind completely left the sails once the final interception happened. Down by only one score with over four minutes left, our defense allowed a backup running back to stroll 27 yards on three straight runs for a touchdown. Our offense, including our quarterback, looked disjointed, off-kilter, as the down-by-two scores drive stalled at the Bills’ 39. Finally, our defense, after calling timeouts to try and get the ball back, allowed Anthony Thomas to run for 6 yards on 3rd and 5.

Why bother calling the time outs? Marquand Manuel, Brady Poppinga, and Tyronne Culver all looked foolish trying to bring down the backup running back. Nick Barnett made a fool of himself on the final kneel-down.

Winners look at setbacks as just that…setbacks. This team has been playing against inferior talent for a couple of weeks, and has been allowed to continue its fragile momentum because the other team couldn’t make a play. This team has to find the intestinal fortitude to overcome mistakes. Otherwise, I don’t care if we get the #6 seed in the playoffs…I can tell you exactly what will happen once we engage a real playoff team.

20) The Packers now sit at 3-5, on pace for a 6-10 season (as I predicted). This was an important game for the Packers, as they now take on two teams in a row that are considerably more talented than they: the Vikings (at the Metrodome) and the Patriots. That will be followed by two more challenging games against the Seahawks and the Jets, before we see another “should-win” game against the 49ers.

It is very possible that this team will lose three games in a row and be 3-7 two weeks from now. We could lose against the Hawks and Jets and be 3-9. It is adversity that brings out the true character of a team, and we will see how a rookie head coach and a team with 31 first- and second-year players will respond to this challenge. Will there be finger-pointing, or will this team hold its head high? Will we see players cashing it in, seeing player after player going on the IR, like last year, or will this team continue to fight all the way to the end?

Injuries to Test Green Bay Packers Depth, Resolve

There's nothing that says a one-armed wallpaper-hanger can't get the job done. However, it goes without saying that his job is just a little bit harder than his two-armed brethren.

So it goes this week for the Green Bay Packers, who head to Buffalo riding the biggest high they’ve had since the 2004 season, on a two-game winning streak and feeling like the engine is finally firing on all cylinders.

After a particularly terrible loss, it is common to hear people saying that 'every cloud has a silver lining'. After last week’s convincing win over the Arizona Cardinals, it could also be said that 'every sunny day still has a shadow'. The win is great, but we might still be paying the price when we look at this week’s injury report.

A high price, indeed, when you consider this team isn’t particularly experienced (an NFL-high 18 rookies on the youngest team in the NFL) that has already seen some of its veteran depth take a hit (the recent losses of Robert Ferguson, Koren Robinson, and Ahmad Carroll). Whether or not these vets are better or worse than the depth presently on the team isn’t the point: it’s that these backups are often getting their first NFL starts this season.

William Hazlitt once said, 'Prosperity is a great teacher, adversity a greater.' While Ted Thompson has come under criticism for some of his moves in building this team (particularly leaving $6 million in cap space unspent), injuries are a part of the game. Unfortunately, nearly any player or coach, when asked what would need to happen for the team to be successful, will always include in the top three responses, 'we need to stay healthy.'

This is the time the Mike McCarthy will show his mettle as a coach. He’s already shown a propensity for what I affectionately call 'spit and wire' adjustments. Last week, after losing Robinson and Ferguson, then also playing without #2 receiver Greg Jennings, he managed a gameplan that allowed the practice squad talents at WR to maximize their contributions. Sieve-like blocking by the young offensive line early in the season was combated by the use of extra blockers and placing Brett Favre in the shotgun 45 times in a game.

If McCarthy has a knack for covering holes, though, this week may be his true test of his abilities

Wide Receiver: Greg Jennings, listed as questionable, participated in Friday’s practice, a critical precursor to whether or not he will play in the game on Sunday. However, the Bills’ defense ranks 18th against the run, 14th against the pass...a far cry better than the defense of the Cardinals showed last week. Ruvell Martin, Chris Francies, and/or Shaun Bodiford may be asked to do more this week, especially if Jennings is unable to go.

Fullback: Not too long ago, longtime Packer favorite William Henderson was benched for practice squad player Brandon Miree. Now, Miree is out with an elbow injury, and Henderson will be asked to do the job without a backup.

Running Back: Vernand Morency, who has proven to be a fantastic change-up with elder statesman Ahman Green, ran for 100 yards last week before injuring his back. His absence moves Noah Herron up to very solid backup carries, as McCarthy has stated he is committed to limiting Green’s carries to no more than 18-20 a game. P.J. Pope has been signed off the Bears’ practice squad, another promising rookie, but if Green has injury problems again, this squad is suddenly looking very limited against a top-18 run defense.

Offensive Line: Chris White was waived this week to make room for Hill, leaving our developing line with few options in the event of injury. After the starting five, only Tony Moll and Junius Coston are expected to be active for the game.

Defensive Line: Cullen Jenkins, Johnny Jolly, and Corey Williams make up three-quarters of a interior line that is ranked #9 against the run. And, all three made the injury list, although all reported practicing on Friday. Jenkins and Jolly, each of whom have had their moments this season, were listed as questionable, Williams as probable. Starter Ryan Pickett and backup Colin Cole are the only healthy interior linemen listed this week.

Cornerback: Charles Woodson, who has shown signs of being the big-play corner Ted Thompson hoped he had paid the big bucks for, finally succumbed to the injury we’ve been crossing our fingers wouldn’t happen. After being listed as doubtful on Wednesday, he’s been upgraded to questionable. His knee injury may or may not keep him out, but regardless, it is likely he will be limited. The secondary has been quite suspect as is this season, and with the departure of prima donna Ahmad Carroll, second-year man Patrick Dendy and rookies Tyrone Culver and Jarrett Bush may well be asked to do more than nickel and dime work.

This rash of injuries comes at a sensitive point in the Packers’ season. Rookie head coach McCarthy is just starting to get his team to gel, although he’s gotten much more competent playing an Arizona Cardinal team that, despite the 'official' standing as an NFL team, plays as well as a Division III college team.* This team is young, 31 first- and second-year players on the 53-man roster, and the fledgling confidence that is brewing is needed as we progress into games against more formidable talents, such as the Vikings and the Patriots.

The Bills are, at 2-5, certainly beatable. But, they are coming off a bye week, are much healthier, and, having just lost two of their previous three games to the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears, are likely looking at the 3-4 Packers as a get-well game, too.

Injuries are part of the game, but how well a team handles the adversity is the true measure of its character. Like the 2005 season, injuries can frustrate you and rip a team apart. How many Packers last year landed on the injury list when it was obvious the team was going nowhere?

These are the times in which unknown players become cult heroes, coaches get labeled as 'geniuses', and general managers earn their keep.

Ruvell Martin may establish himself as a solid #3 receiving threat, William Henderson could give fans one more chance to see him set up Ahman’s explosions through the line, and Patrick Dendy may give Thompson a reason to hold off on the extension for Al Harris.

But, most of all, Mike McCarthy may earn a reputation as being a crafty chessmaster, able to move his pawns and knights about the board in a winning series of moves that continues the forward momentum he’s enjoying.

Let’s hope that these injuries only test the Packers’ depth, and not their faith in the direction the team is taking.

*Author’s note: if any Division III coaches or players are offended by comparing your program to the Arizona Cardinals, please accept my apologies.

Favre Benefits From Improved Line Play

In the last three games, we've seen some significant and marked improvement on the offensive line.

Our young guys, Mark Spitz, Daryn Colledge, Tony Moll, and Scott Wells have shuffled and adjusted, and quite suddenly, seemed to not only make the zone blocking scheme click on all cylinders, but has drastically improved the pass protection for Brett Favre over last year.

Finding a statistical landmark to judge the effectiveness of an offensive line is, at best, a fleeting thing. Most folks tend to use sacks as some sort of measuring stick, but even DVOA advocates admit that sacks are, at best, limited in scope. It isn’t very often the 'bad offensive line' is as obvious as poor Matt Leinart would have to testify against his own boys this past Sunday. Sacks are simply too rare of an occurrence to measure by, as some of the best 'sackmasters' in the NFL don’t even average one per game…and many don’t even average a half a sack a game. That leaves a lot of other plays that are left without a statistical measuring stick.

A more reliable statistical landmark would be the number of hurries and pressures that a quarterback has to take. However, neither are officially-kept statistics, probably due to its subjective nature: who decides if that was a designed rollout or if the quarterback was forced out of the pocket?

So, we are often forced to use some common sense to evaluate how effective an offensive line is performing. Last year, there was some disagreement over whether or not our offensive line was performing well or not, and the impact that had on our offense, particularly on the quarterback.

In 2005, Brett Favre had one of his most forgettable years, throwing for a career-high 607 pass attempts, throwing 29 interceptions and earning a career-low 70.9 passing efficiency rating.

'He’s done for!' they cried. 'Get rid of the bum!'

Alas, in what has now been revealed as a cap-clearing season that has already claimed several scapegoats, it’s a wonder Brett Favre did survive to quarterback another down for the Green Bay Packers. But, what brought on such poor play?

Oh, there’s a litany of explanations. Injuries, no running game, NFL-E talent in the receiving corps, and of course, the knock that Brett Favre simply was going to do whatever he wanted, regardless of what the coaches wanted.

All may factor in, to some degree. I offer, however, that the crumbling of the offensive line contributed, at least, in part to Favre’s performances. Why else would there be an old saying that reminds us, 'It all starts up front'?

I like to look at two areas that are dramatically impacted by the effectiveness of the line: rushing production and quarterback errors: particularly, the most profane error of all, the interception.

During the 2005 campaign, the Packers employed a mishmash of 'talent' along the interior line to replace departed stud guards Mike Wahle and Chad Clifton. In addition, they played with either an injured Mike Flanagan or neophyte Scott Wells at center. The result in the rushing game?

Put quite simply, the Packers had the worst rushing attack in franchise history. A mere 1352 yards, only 84.5 yards per game. No other team in the history of the Green Bay Packers ever ran for fewer yards per game. Even before his injury, Ahman Green gained only 255 yards in five games. Other backs brought in could barely fare any better. Tony Fisher, Samkon Gado, and Noah Herron all took turns starting, and managed only three 100 yards games the entire season.

The impact on the passing game was evident, as Favre repeatedly took the team on his own arm, attempting to win the game through the air, 607 attempts worth. Whether or not this was Favre’s decision, it must be noted that Mike Sherman didn’t seem to take much effort to rein in his quarterback, going as far as to not even discuss foolish interceptions with him at halftime.

Did last year’s line give up a lot of sacks? No. But it did give up pressures, mainly because defenses knew the rushing attack was invisible. As a result, our pass-first-and-often offense racked up the yards, and racked up the interceptions. it was common to see defenses do nothing but rush and cover, without guarding against the run. Safeties were allowed to hang back, waiting for the picks.

The beginning of 2006, when new coach Mike McCarthy declared a commitment to the run, saw instead a continuation of 2005. The new interior linemen, made up primarily of rookies, came under fire for not being able to execute the zone blocking scheme, and the results were eerily familiar.

Over the first four games of 2006, Favre attempted 164 passes, an average of 41 attempts per game. As the team went 1-3 over this span, including a couple of embarrassing losses, the offense attempted to cover for the deficiencies of the offensive line. After the initial shutout against the Bears, McCarthy placed Favre back in the shotgun 45 times against the Saints, 24 times against the Lions, and 34 times against the Eagles. Even pass-happy Peyton Manning rarely finds himself in shotgun more than 20 times a game by design, and by Favre’s own admission, the shotgun was less for strategy as it was for 'protection purposes'.

At the same time, our running game again seemed to run on empty, averaging only 23 carries a game over the first three games, for a total of 226 yards (3.2 yards per carry). We saw, regardless of who was carrying the ball, holes close up (or not appear at all), as running backs ran into piles of bodies instead of running lanes.

And, after the first four games, Brett Favre had five interceptions, putting him on pace for 20 for the year. And while Favre took the heat, the offensive line deservedly took some heat also.

However, let’s fast-forward to our last three games: three games in which nearly everyone is declaring our line 'drastically improved'. Daryn Colledge has suddenly grown from looking like a possible bust and/or project to a serviceable starter. Jason Spitz handles his own, and Wells looks like James Campen in his prime.

So, the offensive line has improved? I’ll agree. And, I’ll take it one step further.

The impact of a strong offensive line has a major impact on Brett Favre. What’s been the difference?

Well, let’s start with the running game. Since the Eagle game, we’ve had three different starters at running back: Vernon Morency, Noah Herron, and Ahman Green. What have we seen? All have had 100-yard games, including two 100 yard games against the Cardinals.

In the last three games alone, the Packers have rushed the ball for an average of 31 times a game. And, more importantly, they’ve averaged over 5 yards a carry. That’s 159 rushing yards per game.

So, let it be said that the zone blocking scheme is 'coming along'.

But, what of Brett Favre? What of the gunslinger who is old, washed-up, and tries to win everything on his aging, inaccurate arm?

Well, in the last three games, we’ve seen an amazing change from 2005 and the first four games of 2006. You see, with the improved play and protection from the offensive line, and the establishment of an NFL running game, Favre’s pass attempts have gone down. He’s only attempting 33 passes a game, and far less plays are run out of the shotgun formation, as McCarthy gains more confidence in the line’s ability to protect the quarterback.

He’s also only averaging about 202 passing yards per game. But most importantly, Brett Favre, King of Interceptions, hasn’t thrown a pick in three games.

Zero interceptions. Three games. Amusingly, the exact three games in which we’ve seen the solid play from the offensive line and the running game.

Favre looks like he’s having fun out there again. Yes, perhaps the competition isn’t as formidable as we’d like to see, but a win is a win is a win, and the Packers have almost equaled last year’s win total. Ahman Green, after five games played, has almost double his rushing yardage from last year after the same number of games.

Even Mike McCarthy sees the connection between the offensive line/running game and Favre’s play:

'Oh, absolutely. When you're running the football, you're able to keep the defense in a 50-50 mindset. It plays to your advantage. We refer to it all the time as 'playing downhill.' I thought we played downhill all day today against our opponent, and that's the way we want to play. Brett did an excellent job of handling their overload defensive fronts and pressure defense at the line of scrimmage. I don't think we were in a bad play all day. He's doing an outstanding job at the line for us.'

Favre, believe it or not, is developing into exactly the kind of quarterback that many have clamored for: instead of the impulsive gunslinger, he’s becoming the game manager. However, he’s a game manager who will still make you pay when you overload the rush or overplay the run. He’s even learned to not pass the ball after he crosses the line of scrimmage.

Certainly, you can attribute Favre’s improved, smarter play to many factors: a new coach, new accountability, a need to prove himself, pursuit of records, and the very real possibility that, once he falters, Aaron Rodgers will force him to abdicate the throne.

But, it all starts up front, regardless of the running back, regardless of the quarterback. Errict Rhett may have had Emmit Smith’s career had he run behind the Dallas Cowboy offensive line for 10 years, and Trent Dilfer may have had Troy Aikman’s career.

As the offensive line improves, and the running game improves, so will the play of the quarterback, no matter the number he wears.

Let’s give this offensive line some credit for proving the naysayers wrong.

And let’s give last year’s offensive line some credit for 29 interceptions.