Packers' Confidence in Young Players Brings Risks

I'll take some heck for saying this, but I'm going to do it.  Hey, it's not like it hasn't run through some people's minds, even those who have justified the Packers' moves this week.  So here it is...some of the moves this week, including cutting Al Harris, may be a bit cocky on the Packers' part.

Call it what you want...pride, confidence, ego.  Hubris is something that affects us all.  When things are going well, we have a little more spring in our step, take a few more risks, and simply feel like the good times will never end.  It's when things start falling around us that we start doing the real "self-scouting" and take the conservative and safe routes (not to be confused with "panic mode", which comes when the common sense approach doesn't pay off).

The Packers bid farewell to two stalwart veterans this week, one for good, and the other likely for good.  In the long-term, it was probably a good time to say goodbye.  In the short-term, however, there are more than a couple of Packer fans out there who may second-guess the impact on the 2010 season.

The ascension of Sam Shields led directly to the expandability of Al Harris, a 34-year old vet who was recovering from serious knee injury.  The Packers did him a favor by keeping him on the roster and paying him to recover, but when the time came to make that final decision three weeks after his PUP time was over, Harris was unceremoniously released...and apparently, somewhat to his surprise.

The Packers have two starting-caliber corners right now in Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, and the Packers are likely looking at Harris's multimillion dollar contract and realize they are going to have to reallocate much of it to keep Williams.  But, Harris's savvy experience would have made him valuable, if nothing else as a coach-on-the-field for young backups Shields, Pat Lee, and Brandon Underwood. 

But the hardest question has to be: would Harris be an improvement...right now....over Shields in the nickel role?  Would moving Shields to the dime and still allowing him to return kicks have made the Packers a worse team or a better team right now?

Now, before you answer that question, let's think about another: what if the Packers had continued the losing streak from the Miami game, when the team was doing some real soul-searching, through the last three games?  What if they were on a five game-skid going into the bye week?  Would the Packers have felt as comfortable letting go a veteran player? 

But, you're right...they aren't 3-6, they are 6-3.  And with the return of the national praise and attention that slowly waned over the first six weeks, the Packers are in a position to make more risky moves.  After all, who's calling for McCarthy's head anymore?  Who is criticizing Ted Thompson's failure to make runs at free agents?

It's all better when you're winning.  But, a lot of prudent Packer fans have learned that hype and momentum can hit a brick wall in the face of some decent competition (and in the Packers' case earlier this year, in the face of some not-that-decent competition). 

Is Shields really that good already?  Hey, I love the kid and I was the one pushing hard for him in the preseason.  But it's a funny coincidence that the same week Thompson lets a beloved veteran go, McCarthy and special teams Shawn Slocum are suddenly marketing Shields as a secret weapon.  Slocum quipped, "If I was getting ready to play us, I'd be scared to death of him." 

It's pretty clear that Tramon Williams is a part of the future.  Assuming Woodson's days are equally numbered as his age continues to advance, we can only assume that when McCarthy made his cryptic "big picture" comment in explaining Harris's release, he could have only meant Shields is that big picture.  And that's a mighty big leap for a guy who couldn't hang on to a kick or punt and was a mild surprise to make the final 53.

So, is Shields really better than Harris right now?  Assuming the Packers win the North and advance to the playoffs, will the Packers be better off with Shields than Harris?  If Tramon or Charles take a hit to the knee and miss some time, are we better off with Shields filling in as a starter than Harris?

Long-term, absolutely.  But for this season, I question it.  It's a somewhat cocky decision made on a young player's potential, and could backfire.  But the Packers are 6-3, and the defense is playing perhaps the best in the NFL right now.  It makes iffy decisions like this a lot easier to make, and a lot easier to accept.  For now.

It's not the first time McCarthy and Company may have bought into the hype.  Following the 2007 season, Thompson was named GM of the Year, and McCarthy won the AP Coach of the Year, and praises were heaped upon both.  For the first time, it appears that both played a different game with Brett Favre than they had in their previous offseasons.  Now, I'm not talking retirement, I'm not talking un-retirement, and I'm not talking Favregate.  I'm talking in those months between the Giants loss and March, when Favre interpreted signals from the front office that they were ready to move on and didn't give him the wide berth he had been given for so long.

Now, I'm not saying the decision itself was wrong.  But it showed how a taste of success emboldened the Packers to stand up to Favre, despite having him come off his best season since his MVP years (in fact, if it weren't for Tom Brady's historically dominant season, he might have won another).  Now, many of us had been telling the Packers brass to grow a pair and treat Favre like a player, not a mini-GM.

But it took some unprecedented success for Thompson and McCarthy to have the courage to do so.  Now, I agreed with the decision to remove Favre from the team, so don't take this as some sort of Favre-defending.  Favre was arrogant and self-absorbed, but there were many at the time who noticed the same thing about Thompson and McCarthy, too.  It gets lost in history, especially with Favre doing such a great job with his own negative public relations, but it was there.

In the end, McCarthy's bold statement insisting the Aaron Rodgers would be fine because "this team is predicated on the defense" ended up coming back to haunt him, as the defense fell apart and McCarthy was forced to fire nearly his entire defensive coaching staff and reboot the entire scheme, after finishing 2-7 and missing the playoffs entirely.  The GM and Coach of the Year ate some crow together that night.

It was the next offseason when the Packers' made another bold assumption, that the Packers didn't need injured Mark Tauscher anymore and aging Chad Clifton was likely to also be replaced in the starting lineup.  The Packers were convinced that Allen Barbre and TJ Lang were ready to take the reins, and in fact, gave Lang every opportunity to take the job from Clifton while penning in Barbre before the season even began.

In the end, we know how the 2009 season went at offensive tackle.  Chad Clifton won back his starting job, while Barbre struggled mightily and was eventually replaced by a re-signed Mark Tauscher mid-season.  After a record-setting pace for sacks allowed over the first half of the season, McCarthy was again sending out the same two starting tackles that used to start for Mike Sherman.  Barbre was cut after the season, and Lang still sits on the bench behind Clifton and first-round pick Bryan Bulaga.

So, it is not without reason to think there is a bit of hubris involved in the Harris decision, a belief that your defense is doing so well, and you're 6-3, that a savvy veteran is expendable in the face of a promising but extremely raw newcomer.

You might even apply this to a couple of other moves, such as the activation of another PUP player, James Starks, to the active roster.  This surprised a lot of folks, including myself, because Starks simply hasn't played in almost two years.  We talk so much about how important that first training camp is for rookies, because the game speed is so much faster, the terminology so much more complicated, that it is almost impossible for a rookie to hold out and make a significant impact.  

Yet, Starks missed his entire senior year, participated in only two weeks of OTA's, and failed his pre-training camp physical.  Why activate the kid who's been nursing a hamstring already, and send him unconditioned into a game situation?  Yes, it allows him to practice, and the Packers are short at running back, but it's unfathomable that Starks is going to pay any dividends this year.  

Yes, there's some logic in it all, but you also have to wonder if the Packers didn't see enough immediate need at running back to have invested in a better, veteran talent to come via trade, whether that have been Marshawn Lynch, Marion Barber, or another player.  Instead, the cavalry is a guy who hasn't played in a game since January of 2009.  But, when you're 6-3, you can take those risks.  Right?

The point is simply that the Packers have been caught with egg on their face before when they've thought they knew what they had in young talent and ended up being proven wrong in the end.  Yes, veterans cost money and are no more a guarantee than an undrafted rookie, though I think you'd find the success rate is a little higher with the veterans.  

The Packers looked to have turned what was a disappointing season around, going on a three-game tear that has restored tangible momentum to the team.  The fact that two of the wins were against mediocre (Minnesota) and miserable (Dallas) competition is overshadowed because they were against Teams The Packers Love To Beat.  But on the horizon are truer tests of the Packers' mettle:  the Giants, the Falcons, and the Patriots.  That will be the caliber of team the Packers will be facing in the playoffs, not the Cowboys or Vikings.

And, if the Packers have learned anything from 2009, it is that you have to show up with all your pistons firing in the playoffs to have a chance to win.  Let's hope the Packers pride in their young, unproven players over expensive, aging veterans doesn't come back to haunt them in Week 18.

My Wife's Al Harris Jersey Is Going Nowhere

Please note: this was written before Al Harris potentially chose to sign with the Vikings, Bears, or Lions, so don't hate on me for being nice towards him. Plus, I'll sic my wife on you, and you do NOT want any part of that right now.
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I got the text message at work yesterday, one of those ALL CAPS texts that make you realize the sender is more than a little perturbed. When I saw it was also from my wife, the capital letters were a danger beacon. I quickly reviewed if I had done something stupid, like left the cat outside, forgotten her birthday, or eaten the last of her Chunky Monkey ice cream.

It was a relief to find that the source of her text abuse wasn't me, but hearing the news that the Green Bay Packers had released cornerback Al Harris. I wasn't too surprised, though I never got so much as a tweet from her all through the Favre debacle. "How the heck could they do THAT?" she asked when I got home.

When faced with a wife who is particularly angry, all those rational explanations we thought were plausible on Twitter or on our blogs suddenly fell flat. "Well, he was injured last year," I said.
"SO? Why don't they put him on injured reserve then??"

"Well, I don't think he's that injured anymore. He thinks he can play now."

"So why don't they let him play?" This was not an inquisitive question. It was one of those dangerous questions that make you think through your answer before giving a censored version that allows you to sleep in your usual bed that night.

"I guess they didn't want him as a fourth cornerback. They have three guys in front of him that they like, including an undrafted free agent." Seeing the raised eyebrow, I quickly added, "And you know, he doesn't play special teams."

"But isn't he still good? Didn't he just make the Pro Bowl a few years ago?"

"Well, yeah, but that's a pretty serious injury. He may have lost a step. But I guess he was practicing with the first-stringers last week." Not much I was saying was having an impact. I was grasping at straws.

"So, now I have a useless jersey," was her final dagger.

"No. I'd keep it. I mean, he'll be a Packer Hall of Famer one day," I called after her, as she retired to the kitchen and began clanking pots and pans together.

It's not often that my wife makes me have to think harder than I already do about something to do with the team. She doesn't follow the team intensely, but she is a born-and-bred Packer fan that doesn't tolerate the minutia when it comes to what being a loyal fan really is.

And, like many others out there, I wonder if this is a far-less-explosive sequel to the infamous "train has left the station" move that happened a couple of years ago. Harris publicly thanked the Packers for hanging on to him a few weeks ago, saying it was more than they needed to do for an aging player who had a serious knee injury. But, when it came time to make a decision to activate him the roster, having young players like Tramon Williams and Sam Shields made the decision a bit harder.

Do you move on with a younger, developing player that shows a lot of promise? Obviously, Williams has sealed his spot at corner opposite Charles Woodson, but Shields has had a couple of outstanding games and is now being pimped by the coaching staff as the kick returner we hoped we would have been in the preseason (when it appeared his hands were made of wet sponges).

However it all went down, it looks like the Packers presented Harris with a choice: go on IR for the season, collect your paycheck, and finish your career here in Green Bay; or we'll release you to play elsewhere. Apparently, taking a roster spot from a younger player was taken off the table by the Packer brass. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that Harris feels he can still play. You can also deduce that the Packers felt it was no longer going to be in Green Bay.

Crossing the Rubicon for Al Harris is going to be a whole lot easier than it was for Brett Favre, even if he signs with a division opponent. But, that doesn't mean that the intensely competitive Harris isn't going to relish in proving himself when he gets to play the Packers again. Harris has never been the boisterous vocal locker room leader, or even the community pillar that Woodson has become. But, he's always played solidly and led by example. For a team that may be desperately thin at cornerback, he's not a bad signing. Just like Thompson's signings of a lot of 30+ veteran players under the threat of a lockout, it's a far better idea to throw big short-term money at older players that will be gone in a few years, than to lock up a great young player to a contract that may cost you under new rules later on.

But, Al Harris is and should always be remembered as a Green Bay Packer. I got lucky and scored tickets to the January 4, 2004 playoff game at Lambeau Field against Seattle. Naturally, I brought my wife along.
Now, my wife is not one to sit and watch a game with me on television. She often claims to have this superstition that when she watches the Packers play, they lose. Now, I don't think she really believes that as much as I believe she uses it as an excuse to go do silly, less important things, like Facebook, changing the kitty litter, or putting out grease fires in the kitchen.

But, on that night, she began to believe it. While there would appear to be a direct relationship between the aount of Miller Lites she imbibed and the degree to which she believed the fates of a professional football team was affected by her presence, it didn't change how the woman next to me began getting anxious as the Packers fell behind in the third period.

As the Packers rallied, she was relieved (and ordered another beverage), but at the end of regulation, when Ryan Longwell missed a field goal and the game went into overtime, tears began to stream down her face. It was a cold night, and she began apologizing, wishing I had brought one of my usual Packer buddies from my pre-married days instead of her.

Her hands dug into my arm as we both stood in row 35 during the overtime coin flip, and Matt Hasselback smugly announced that he planned to take the ball and score. I laughed nervously at his pompousness, but my wife looked like she believed him. She kept apologizing, and it began to get to the point I was starting to believe her, that perhaps she was the bad-luck charm that was going to derail this team of destiny. There was little I could do as both teams exchanged punts...I couldn't assure her that the Packers were going to pull this one out.  Would I ever be able to go to a game again with my wife?

I have been pretty lucky to have been in attendance of some pretty memorable games in Lambeau Field over the years, especially when you consider I don't have season ticket: Favre's first game, Barry Sanders' -1 rushing day, the first Lambeau Leap, Edgar Bennett scoring a touchdown on a “hole big enough to drive a hole to the Super Bowl through”, Randy Moss's butt-wiping, and Aaron Rodgers' vindication game against Favre this year.

But I don't know if any of those will ever equal the image burnt in my memory of Al Harris's raised finger as he intercepted Hasselback's pass and ran it back into the endzone. The home town crowd erupted, Harris was piled upon by his teammates, and the magic of the season of Fate and Destiny continued for one more glorious week. If they ever mount a statue of Harris in the Lambeau District, there's no other pose they could put him in besides that image of him running that pick-six back on that cold winter night in 2004.

And I will never forget it, because as Lambeau celebrated, my wife cried in my jacket, and publicly declared her gratitude for Al Harris for all time. After all, it was he who broke her curse, once and for all. Two things happened as a result of that day: my wife has never again claimed the Packers always lose when she watches, and she bought a white #31 jersey that she has worn on every Packer day since.

I could be reading a story from the paper about any Packer...Charles Woodson, Mark Tauscher, Aaron Rodgers...but none made her ears perk up like any news about Al Harris. She was dead set on buying me a dreadlocks wig and making me wear it.

In our house, Al Harris will always be a Packer, and well he should be. How many of us would give our right arm to be immortalized forever because of that one play, and yet he should be honored for all he's done besides that play. For all the criticism Mike Sherman ever got as a GM, and much of it was well-deserved, trading for Al Harris is easily his one that was an unqualified genius move.

And he will always have one fan that will never let go of her jersey, reminding many of us cynical bloggers that not every move the Packers make has to be rationally explained away as being best for the team, or a good business decision, or thinking “big picture”. Because, out there, there are still fans who love players in the most irrational, and loyal ways possible. For those fans who don't still need to psychoanalyze and justify every move the Packer make, there may be no acceptable reason for the departure of a beloved player.

So, on behalf of my wife and myself I say: Farewell, Al Harris. Godspeed.

Packer/Cowboy Team Grades

OVERALL: A
Yes, it may have been against the lowly Cowboys, but this is the first game this season that all three units (offense, defense, special teams) all played four quarters in the same game.  The Packers dominated every statistical category as they rolled to a 45-7 victory, appearing confident, focused, and ready to take advantage of every Cowboy miscue.  The Packers had only two penalties, no turnovers, and held a fifteen-minute advantage in time of possession. 

RUSHING OFFENSE: B+

The two-headed monster of John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson each had 13 carries and churned out 96 yards between them.   It wasn’t dominating, but it was effective in keeping the defense honest. The Packers tried different power formations against the Cowboys, including utilizing their fullbacks more in the blocking.  Rodgers added 41 yards on five scrambles.
 

RUSHING DEFENSE: A
The Packers may have allowed 39 rushing yards, but 33 of those were in the final quarter on two meaningless drives.  Limiting Marion Barber and Felix Jones to five yards through three quarters was an incredible feat.  Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews played just as important a role bottling up the run game as they normally do in the pass game.  The Cowboys did not have one possession over three minutes until the clock-killing final drive of the game.

PASSING OFFENSE: A

After so many struggles this season, Aaron Rodgers returned to 2009 form against the Cowboys, picking them apart with a barrage of swing passes, comeback routes, and quick hitters.  Then, he lofted long passes down the sideline and hit receivers in stride with the accuracy we haven’t seen since preseason.  Rodgers passed for 289 yards and three touchdowns, and appeared far more confident and aware in the pocket.  James Jones had a career game with 123 yards on eight catches, and may soon be known as “Mr. Sunday Night” after his big game against the Vikings two weeks ago.

PASSING DEFENSE: A

Other than the one fluke touchdown drive at the end of the first half, the Packers’ defense flustered Jon Kitna all game long.  If he wasn’t suffering one of four sacks on the day, he was getting hit soon after releasing the ball.  An early interception by nickel back Sam Shields set up one touchdown, while a spectacular pick-six by Clay Matthews put the icing on the cake in the fourth quarter.  Dez Bryant did catch nine balls for 86 yards and a score, but that was all the Cowboys could manage.

SPECIAL TEAMS: B+
The Packers had trouble containing Bryan McCann on kick returns (27.8 ypr), and a Mason Crosby kickoff out-of-bounds set up the Cowboys’ only scoring drive.  Crosby also had a 54-yard field goal blocked on the Packers’ first drive of the game.  The Packers’ punt team had a good day, with Tim Masthay downing both his punts inside the 20-yard line and keeping Bryant’s punt returns in check.  Jarrett Bush forced two coverage fumbles in the game.  Nick Collins scored a touchdown on the recovery in the second quarter, while Bush recovered his own forced fumble near the end of the game.