Thursday, July 8, 2010

Rodgers Passes The 26-27-whatever Test

John P Lopez over at delves into a statistical wonderland, in which he believes that he has found a magical combination that predicts the success of college quarterbacks in the NFL.

It's an interesting concept, and I encourage you to check it out.  He presents the theory that if a college quarterback meets three statistical categories coming out of college, it translates to a good career.  Those that miss on at least one of them will struggle.

The milestones are:

A minimum score of 26 on the Wonderlic
A minimum of 27 college career starts
A minimum of 60% college career passing completion percentage

He presents a list of successful quarterbacks that meet the criteria (Manning, Romo, Brees, Rivers) and a list of ones that failed at least one of the three milestones (Culpepper, Leaf, Couch, Vick).  It's a nice snapshot, though I sure would like to see a more complete list instead of a cherry-picked one.

What makes me say that is Packer quarterback Aaron Rodgers wasn't mentioned at all in his article, which I found not only annoying, but curious...why would he be left off, since he certainly has to be considered a top-10 quarterback in the league.

So, I set out to research Rodgers stats, and see how he did.

1)  He scored a 35 on the Wonderlic.  Check

2) He completed 63.8 of his passes at Cal.  Check.

Which brings us to his college starts.  According to the Packers website, Rodgers started 22 games for Cal, which is about five short of the 27 needed for Lopez's formula.  However, if you include the eleven games he started for Butte Junior College as a freshman, he would be up to 33.  Do those count in Lopez's formula?

My guess is, looking at Rodgers' success, they sure do.  Incidentally, the incumbent starter at quarterback for the Vikings failed the formula, scoring only a 22 on his Wonderlic.  Might explain all those playoff interceptions.


PackersRS said...

Hey, CD. If you include his Butte Junior College starts, how does his completion percentage fares?

I think that needs to be considered, also. The numbers from wikipedia only consider his playtime at Cal...

C.D. Angeli said...

I'll try and find the exact percent, but he threw for 61.5% at was right around there, and had it been less I would have noted it. So, if you include his Butte starts AND his Butte %, he would have all three. Without, he misses the starts requirement.

Of course, we see a very successful AR who may not have been very successful thrown behind Wil Whittaker and Adrian Klemme as a rookie....

IPB said...

PackersRS - doesn't ol' wikipedia allow just about anyone to update the information they list?

This comment strikes me ---
My guess is, looking at Rodgers' success, they sure do. Incidentally, the incumbent starter at quarterback for the Vikings failed the formula, scoring only a 22 on his Wonderlic. Might explain all those playoff interceptions.

A little cynicism there, C.D.? I think a lot of the Gunslinger's success was always due to his Father forcing him to blocvk for the running back in high school. that, and the fact that he has pretty large hands versus his size as a human. It's somewhat out of balance considering he was only 6'2" when drafted. At his age, like all of us, I'm sure he's startin' to shrink.

For me - Rodgers has grabbed several stats that Favre was never able to get in his career. And, that's an excellent start for any QB in this League. Combine that with his upbringing and it should mirror Kurt Warner's success, if not Favre's, ...or ever Bart Starr's.